TROIKA DIPLOMACY FOUND WANTING
EVERY time the Extraordinary Double Troika of SADC leaders meet for a summit to “resolve” the militant insurgency in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, they conjure up more questions than solutions, hiding behind a veil of cryptic Troika speak.
The latest summit on May 27, hosted by Mozambique President Filipe Nyusi, chair of the SADC, in Maputo, was no exception. Like the previous one on April 9, the six leaders – including President Cyril Ramaphosa – “noted progress in finding a lasting solution to terrorism and violent extremism in Cabo Delgado, and considered the proposed regional response in support of Mozambique.”
Like before, they reconvened an extraordinary summit by June 20 in Maputo. Welcome to the Southern African phenomenon of Troika Diplomacy!
Addressing a complex terrorist insurgency in Cabo Delgado, festering since 2017 and that has claimed more than 3 000 lives, displaced almost 750 000 people, and forced more than 1.3 million Mozambicans into needing urgent humanitarian aid, through a regional mechanism is the height of political folly.
President Nyusi’s closing remarks bordered on surrealism – pondering “joint actions to tackle threats to peace”, and consolidating “our cohesion as a regional block to overcome security challenges arising from terrorism and violent extremism”.What poppycock!
He mentioned the “evil nature of terrorist groups, operating at the confluence of organised crime, radicalisation and extremism,” but conveniently left out any reference to excesses of his security forces, curbs on the media, government corruption, marginalisation of the poor, and the lack of jobs and development in Cabo Delgado.
There are agendas, with international links, pushing a narrative that the insurgency is a jihadist attempt to “Islamise” the province and, eventually, the Christian-majority country, needing a strong military response. This is a dangerous fallacy.
Nyusi’s talk of engagement of an SADC standby force was shattered even before the summit convened. International Affairs Minister Naledi Pandor, betraying her foreign policy naivety, said days earlier that Pretoria would be pressing for urgent military action in Mozambique, only to be rebuffed by her Tanzanian counterpart Liberata Mulamula, a day after the summit, who said Dar es Salaam would not be sending troops – instead, stressing the need for dialogue.
Troops on the ground cost money.
France is the most financially invested in Mozambique’s gas assets in this modern day “scramble for Africa”.
The SADC approach is piecemeal, with security financed by foreign proxies with a vested economic and financial interest in Mozambique’s resource curse. The US is already providing military technical advice. The EU is gearing up to a similar 600-strong contingent in the coming months. Even Saudi Arabia’s strongman Mohammed Bin Salman, in May, pledged support to President Nyusi.
After all, Maputo is a member of the African Union (AU) and Organisation of Islamic Co-operation (OIC), headquartered in Jeddah.
President Macron of France has called for an “African response” to the insurgency, but is willing to offer political support if requested. I would suggest a joint EU-OIC peace effort. After all, 26 African countries are common members of both organisations.
For Mozambique, the longer this festers, the more it will cost – not only in lives, displacement and misery in Cabo Delgado, but also in security debt trap. Someone has to bear the ultimate financial cost. Mozambique is already mired in a financial debt trap!