Why Africa chose to remain neutral on war in Ukraine

IN EARLY March the UN’s General Assembly voted on a resolution demanding that Russia immediately stop its military operations in Ukraine.

Out of 193 member states, 141 voted in support of the resolution, five voted against, 35 abstained and 12 didn’t vote at all. Of the 54 African member states, Eritrea voted against the resolution, 16 African countries, including South Africa, abstained, while nine other countries did not vote at all.

In all, about half (26) of the 54 member states in Africa chose the path of neutrality in some form.

So why did African countries not vote overwhelmingly to support the resolution?

The decision of several African countries to stay neutral and avoid condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine was made on issues relating directly to the conflict, as well as broader security, economic and political considerations.

There are five key reasons: these include scepticism towards Nato and its motives; growing reliance among some countries on Moscow for military support this past decade; growing dependence on wheat and fertiliser imports; and a sense that this is a return of the Cold War.

African countries have based their decisions on strategic calculations on how the conflict will affect them, rather than on the humanitarian catastrophe arising from the conflict.

First, some African countries, including South Africa, see Nato as the aggressor with its expansion eastwards. This, in the view of these countries, constitutes a threat to Russia.

This is not the first time African countries have been sceptical of Nato’s activities. In 2012, the former president of Namibia (another country that abstained from the vote) argued that Nato’s overthrow of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi should be condemned and rejected by all right-thinking Africans.

The invasion of Libya and the subsequent killing of Gaddafi resulted in destabilisation in North Africa and the Sahel. The result is that Nato has become quite unpopular in several African countries.

Second, in the past decade, several African countries such as Libya, Ethiopia, Mali and Nigeria have developed significant military alliances with Russia. Several African countries have depended on Russia to combat insurgencies. This has ranged from hiring private military contractors from Russia, such as the Wagner Group, to direct arms imports.

A lack of emphasis on adherence to human rights has shifted many countries in Africa to building military alliances with Russia.

Third, several African countries depend on Russia for wheat and fertilisers.

This has deepened economic ties. The figures from the UN conference on trade and development show that African countries imported wheat from Russia and Ukraine worth about $5.1 billion (R74bn) between 2018 and 2020. A quarter of African countries depend on the two countries for a third of their wheat consumption.

In addition, the perceived lack of support from the West during the Covid-19 pandemic has shifted many African countries further away from their traditional Western allies in Europe and America.

Fourth, some African countries see the conflict as a proxy war between the US and Russia, reminiscent of the Cold War and so don’t want to get entangled in the conflict.

Finally, there’s an increasing perception in several African countries that traditional Western allies only care about their own economies and people, and would only assist if it is in their interest or falls within the liberal agenda.

There has been no mention of how African countries are affected, or how to help countries on the continent whose economies are struggling.

This brings back memories of the lackadaisical support received from the West during the pandemic. And it further reinstates the need to be neutral – or in some cases not to be dictated to.