PLAN FOR THE WORST, HOPE FOR THE BEST

THE World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) strategy around the different scenarios that could take place regarding Covid-19 this year reveals the unpredictable nature of the virus, and how mild to severe cases need to be factored in.

It also reveals that while research and vaccination take place, there is significant room for uncertainty as the world battles a virus that has far too many unknowns for anyone to confidently predict when it will be over.

The updated “Strategic Preparedness, Readiness and Response Plan” around Covid-19 reveals three possible scenarios for how Covid-19 could evolve this year.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general for WHO, the UN agency responsible for international public health, last week expressed hope that this plan could, and should, be the last.

“It lays out three possible scenarios for how the pandemic could evolve this year.

“Based on what we know now, the most likely scenario is that the virus continues to evolve, but the severity of the disease it causes reduces over time as immunity increases due to vaccination and infection.

“Periodic spikes in cases and deaths may occur as immunity wanes, which may require periodic boosting for vulnerable populations,” Tedros said.

A best-case scenario would see less aggressive or severe variants emerging, and this would make boosters or new formulations of vaccines unnecessary.

“In the worst-case scenario, a more virulent and highly transmissible variant emerges. Against this new threat, people’s protection against severe disease and death, either from prior vaccination or infection, would wane rapidly,” he said.

It is the best-case scenario that will allow the world to return to normality, but governments and the WHO have learnt that with this pandemic, it is advisable to prepare for the worst.