Libya stalemate risks return to war
AS ITS political stalemate festers, Libya risks sliding back towards civil war with diplomacy at a standstill, politicians thwarting progress towards elections and military leaders, including eastern commander Khalifa Haftar, threatening violence.
A move by forces aligned with the Tripoli government this week to blockade a meeting by a legislative body, a bout of deadly fighting in August and Haftar’s warnings of a new war all underscore the risks.
New UN envoy Abdoulaye Bathily warned this week that “some institutional players are actively hindering progress towards elections”.
In Tripoli, many people fear that gridlock raises the chances of violence, which has flared several times in the capital this year and always risks escalating into wider conflict. The prospects of more conflict are also high for an inattentive world.
War could mean a new theatre for Russia-Western friction on the Mediterranean, cuts to Libya’s 1.2 million barrels-per-day oil output during a global energy shortage, a space for Islamist militants to prosper and fuel for a global migration crisis. Libya has had little open warfare since the 2020 ceasefire that ended Haftar’s last
assault on Tripoli, the culmination of years of division between factions who emerged during a 2011 Nato-backed uprising and split between east and west in 2014. On the surface, Libya’s political stand-off seems defined by disputes over an eventual constitution, the rules of a future election, regional divisions of wealth and the shape of a transitional government. However, many Libyans suspect none of the factions has much interest in a longterm resolution because each benefits from the messy status quo.
In Tripoli, Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah runs the Government of National Unity, installed early last year through a UN-backed process to oversee a transition that was meant to culminate in elections last year.
His government’s direct access to
oil revenue through the Central Bank and spending on development projects run by political allies has drawn accusations of corruption, which he denies.
The eastern parliament has rejected his legitimacy. It backs a separate administration under Fathi Bashagha, urging its own plan for an election.
However, the parliament’s own term expired years ago and critics of the speaker, Aguila Saleh, accuse him of playing loose with legislative rules.
In Tripoli itself, and the rest of the north-west, two years of ceasefire have scrambled the military coalition of armed factions that had fought off Haftar’s assault. With Turkish forces still present around Tripoli, battles between rival groups in the north-west present the most likely trigger for any wider conflict involving Haftar. | Reuters