ELECTRIFIED FUTURE

It behoves me as an advocate for electric vehicles to respond to the letter by John Sampson

(EV issues, March 2020).

Worldwide, petrol, diesel and hybrid car sales have been falling for the last few years (quite precipitously in some countries) while the sales of EVS are increasing. Unsurprisingly, hybrid sales are also collapsing as the last-ditch attempt by the legacy manufacturers to hang onto fossil-fuelled (FF) engines by including some batteries has not fooled consumers.

Many owners are waiting for the EV transition. Many of our friends – having seen and driven in our BMW i3 – are in this category. Every year this phenomenon will increase. This has now pressurised the mainstream car manufacturers to commit to and invest in EVS. This gets trickier as EVS get cheaper and better while FF cars become more expensive and complex to comply with emissions (and to compete in terms of performance). Pro t margins are so low on new cars this could

result in legacy manufacturers abandoning production of FF cars and obtaining their income from spares on older vehicles. An irreversible tipping point is imminent and will happen fast (as we have witnessed with PCS, smartphones, Amazon, etc).

Unless Mr Sampson is very old or believes somehow all these manufacturers will continue making expensive combustionengine cars or sell at a loss to keep South African drivers happy, I think he is in for a big surprise.

EVS may include fuel-cell vehicles which can refuel quickly and have enormous range but the complexity and cost of rolling these out and the infrastructure required may convince many people that the latest battery technology is more appropriate. I believe there is a place for fuelcell EV power in trains, big trucks and boats but not for private cars.

Once this upheaval has started in earnest, the charging infrastructure will follow. The huge Tesla charging network is giving them an inherent sales advantage. Luckily, charging stations are easy, quick and reasonably simple to install. The electrical power required will have to be addressed by upgrades, smart meters and any number of new technologies. Norway went from minimal EV sales to over 50% in a few years and coped with the electrical demands. EVS may indeed save Eskom but that is another topic.

Contemporary EV batteries and motors last virtually the life of the vehicle already and million-kilometre batteries are imminent. Recycling of batteries, reduced costs, elimination of exotic minerals/metals and so on will reduce the impact of battery production. Zero-cobalt batteries are about to enter production.

I suspect Mr Sampson will enjoy his Windhoek to Cape Town drive in an electric car within 10-15 years as it will be cheaper to buy, run and maintain not to mention safer, faster, quieter, smoother and more spacious. He may even learn to appreciate the enforced short recharge stops every three hours to relax, replenish and refresh.

What’s not to like? [As always, Guy, very well argued – editor.]

a disappointing engine and column gearchange. The motor was rough, underpowered and troublesome. Once again, Willie was allowed to work his magic. I drove his creation only once after convincing my boss I had an important engagement that night. Truth be told, I had a gorgeous girlfriend who genuinely loved fast cars and I wanted to impress her. This time I drove with great care but succeeded in waking up the neighbours with a combination of exhaust and induction noise. If memory serves, the V4 was a 1700 and, apart from the usual camshaft and cylinder head modifications, it sported a single four-choke carburettor nestling in the shallow V between the cylinders. It produced a vulgar, sucking sound. Sadly, as you mentioned, the 17M and 20M offerings from Ford of Germany didn’t impress the local public. [Lovely memories here, Rudyard, and yes, Peter remembers your exchange – editor.]

This means the manufacturers either have to increase “tank size” (battery capacity) or reduce consumption to 6,45 kwh/100 km in order to attain a decent range comparable to modern ICE cars.

This is exactly what carmakers have done over the last 10 to 15 years with their petrol and diesel models, reducing consumption to around 6,5 L/100 km (on average) for their mainstream models (Polos, Fiestas, etc.). Currently, electric vehicles are roughly 10 to 15 years behind their ICE brethren in terms of consumption and range.

Thank you again for an excellent publication. [Jan, for reference, take a look at my response to last month’s winning letter in which I do a rudimentary comparison of consumption between the E-golf and BMW’S 118i – editor.] 8% on gravel roads and the other 2% on bad roads, sand, etc. We all thoroughly enjoyed our holidays and I think we are all happy with our choice of vehicles.

In my very subjective opinion, I reckon the Sorento and Subaru performs much better on tar than the Fortuners. On gravel, there is not much to choose between the four. On bad roads, the Fortuners are the best, with the Subaru not far behind. Bad roads are not the Kia's forte but it still made it through places like the Baviaanskloof and the thick sand of the Chobe.

Certainly, if you must do Van Zyl’s Pass when you are in Namibia, then stay away from the Sorento and its likes, but I do think for your average person the “softer” option like the Sorento makes a lot of sense. [Having recently tackled Van Zyl’s – see last month’s Defender drive

– I agree the Sorento should remain well clear. Everywhere else, it’s a refined, comfortable family SUV and deserves its Top 12 gong – editor.] finding homes? Simple: there is no manual option and Honda’s manual gearboxes are amazing.

Who wants to spend R474 000 on a Honda and then have to live with a less-than-satisfactory gearbox? On the next page, Terence does his long-term test of the Renault Duster and guess what the only negative is: issues with the EDC transmission.

Carmakers claim they are discontinuing manual versions due to lack of demand. It is obvious that, if you don't offer a manual, there will be no demand. A VW Golf GTI with no manual option? No thanks.

Lastly, there is the reality that South Africans drive their cars a lot longer than many other countries due to affordability. Properly cared for, a manual lasts forever. The same cannot be said for CVTS and dual-clutch boxes and their electronic components.

I know I am part of a rapidly shrinking minority, but long live the manual gearbox! [I’d happily join your shrinking minority, David, were it not for one crucial point: many people commute in bumper-to-bumper traffic and a well-sorted self-shifter does much to ease strain. While we’ve traditionally been critical of CVTS at CAR, we’ve noticed an improvement in the tech and the same applies to dual-clutch transmissions. However, I’d gladly take a well-engineered torque-converter – ZF’S eightspeeder comes to mind – or one of Honda or Mazda’s sublime manual gearboxes instead – editor.]