Mbeki foresees ANC losing at poll
New party to emerge driven by labour, business
THE ANC will not rule South Africa a few decades from now, analyst Moeletsi Mbeki said on Friday. “South Africa, politically, is actually quite unstable,” he said in an interview after giving an address at Stellenbosch University.
Asked if he thought the ANC would still be in power 20 to 30 years from now, Mbeki, the younger brother of former president Thabo Mbeki, responded: “No, I don’t think so.”
Asked which party he thought would replace the ANC, he said: “I think there are new political parties . . . [there are] awakenings happening in the country that I think will create [this alternative].”
Earlier he told students there was potential for the “emergence of a new political party, driven by organised labour and business”.
This, Mbeki said, would be a good thing for South Africa, but something the ruling party saw as a “major, major threat”.
The primary challenge facing the country was half to three-quarters of the population were living in poverty.
Asked what he thought the likelihood was of South Africa experiencing the equivalent of an Arab Spring – the revolutionary wave of protests and uprisings that swept across parts of the Arab world over a year ago – he replied: “Very high.”
The north African states where the revolts had taken place were middle-income countries like South Africa.
“The north African countries and South Africa are the only middle-income countries in Africa. It’s they that face this problem.
“You have a relatively well-educated population with high expectations, but the economic system is not delivering. Those are the countries that are susceptible.”
On South Africa’s economic prospects for the next two to three decades, he said there were two ways the country could go.
“If we carry on along the path we are following, which is to divert more and more of our gross domestic product to private and state consumption, then the [local] economy is going to shrink and continue shrinking.
“If we change the policies, and move more like the Asians are doing towards investment . . . it’ll make a huge difference.”
But he warned South Africa could not have it both ways.
“You can’t have these hugely highly-paid politicians and civil servants consuming imports like 4x4s and at the same time develop investment for the economy.
“Politically, if you have a stagnant economy you have the instability we have today.”
South Africa was politically unstable, but there was no organised opposition among the poor, who made up the bulk of the ANC’S support base.
“It’s just the poor people are operating on their own. But, sooner or later, they are going to be joined by others – like, for example, the ANC Youth League.
“You can see the ANCYL are now starting to join the poor. Then it becomes a new political equation.” — Sapa