Task of unravelling JZ’s dirty deep state
PRESIDENT Jacob Zuma survived his eighth no-confidence vote in parliament despite presiding over a series of corruption scandals that have paralysed much of the government and overseeing an economy so mismanaged that it is one of the few in the world in recession.
Having survived by 21 votes, attention will now inevitably shift to when Zuma finally does go.
He is scheduled to lose the presidency of the ruling ANC this December. And, due to constitutionally-imposed term limits, he must step down as president of the country after national elections in April 2019.
Having come to power in 2009, this will mark a significant break for South Africa.
However, it would be a mistake to believe the country’s economic performance will necessarily improve dramatically when it finally enters the postZuma era. ports and harbours, and the national airline.
Even the best government will take years to reverse that damage.
Perhaps most importantly, Zuma has increasingly played the race card to legitimise his opponents and rally support.
The political discourse in South Africa today, with ANC politicians blaming many if not all of the country’s problems on “white monopoly capital”, is a far cry from the “rainbow nation” of Nelson Mandela.
It will be very difficult for post-Zuma leaders to walk back some of the legislation, including the recently promulgated Mining Charter, that seem designed to punish whites.
Future administrations will have to develop a way of explaining why, in a country still deeply divided by race, it is necessary to reverse policies that Zuma said were aimed at redistribution, even if they were unlikely to actually lead to black advancement or new investment.
The leader who succeeds Zuma will therefore be faced with Herculean tasks.
Simply ending the economic slide will be difficult. Making all the tough decisions to get the country to 5% growth so that it can start to reduce structural unemployment would tax any new leader. become worse in South Africa since he joined the government.
Another expected candidate is Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Zuma’s ex-wife. She has been a cabinet minister and is a former chairwoman of the African Union Commission, though her record of governance is mixed at best.
She is also Zuma’s candidate. That suggests she is unlikely to be a disruptive successor to his legacy and interests.