Brexit's new chapter: down to brass tacks

With just two weeks to go to Brexit, EU diplomats are preparing for the next phase: intense negotiations to hammer out a future with Britain after the divorce.

Brussels is braced for new rounds of battles, aware a bullish British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is feeling reinvigorated after his electoral victory.

The main battle lines were revealed in interviews with 18 European officials and diplomats closely involved in the talks: The EU no longer expects Johnson to ask for a delay. That leaves only eight months, from March to October, to reach an agreement and allow time for ratification, a nigh impossible task. Talks can begin as soon as EU ministers agree their joint mandate on February 25.

Months of intense discussions, to alternate between London and Brussels, will be co-ordinated by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and his UK counterpart, probably David Frost.

The tight deadline allows “about 40 days of pure negotiation” in eight- to 10week sessions, an official warned.

Another diplomat said negotiators would open about ten “negotiating tables” with some done in parallel.

Johnson’s election campaign promised “to get Brexit done” and to do away with his predecessor’s goal to keep close ties with Europe and disruption to the crossChannel economy to a minimum.

Johnson will pursue a minimal trade deal that will seek zero tariffs and quotas on goods. “The prime minister has been clear that he wants a Canada-style free trade agreement,” a UK official said.

A mere trade deal would be an economic blow to Britain and to its closest trading partners such as Ireland, France, Belgium and the Netherlands.

No alignment on EU standards means custom checks, paperwork and all sorts of new limits to trade. Member states will be dead-set on ensuring British companies gain no unfair advantage and UK goods are subject to checks like those from any other non-EU country.

One question nagging Europeans is the future structure of the relationship. Will it be formal, with clearly set joint institutions, or a looser arrangement structured by separate deals on trade, security and other topics as necessary? –