Tobacco ban will cause many to quit smoking says Dlamini-Zuma

Co-operative governance and traditional affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma says it is “expected that a sizeable number of South Africans will stop smoking and remain quit after the lockdown”, as a result of the contentious tobacco ban.

“The poor and youth are particularly likely to quit,” she states in court documents filed on Wednesday.

The minister is adamant that there is evidence the ban has been “effective in reducing access to cigarettes and usage thereof”, despite growing concern that the ban is bolstering SA’s illicit cigarette trade, and has cut off a significant portion of tax revenue.

Sars is projecting an annual revenue loss of about R285bn based on figures for the first month of the lockdown and the sluggish economic activity.

Police minister Bheki Cele has also admitted that crime syndicates have taken advantage of the ban, and have expanded in the trade of tobacco products.

“We are aware of some sales of illicit cigarettes during the level 5 lockdown,” Dlamini-Zuma states in her papers, adding that “illicit cigarette sales have been a problem both locally and globally for decades”.

She believes that the best way to deal with the illicit cigarette trade is by curbing demand for such products. “If fewer South Africans smoke, then the consumer demand for illicit cigarettes will fall and this will be accomplished by a decline in the illicit trade.”

Dlamini-Zuma says the government’s decision to impose a cigarette ban during its Covid19 shutdown was “to protect human life and health and to reduce the potential strain on the health-care system”.

“As tobacco use is known to lead to respiratory diseases, and Covid-19 primarily affects the respiratory system, it is logical to proceed on the basis that tobacco may lead to increased risks in relation to Covid-19,” she states.

Among the arguments advanced by the minister is that SA’s eight million smokers have a greater risk of requiring ventilators if they are infected.

“If an estimated 10% were to need ICU [intensive care units], this would translate to about 8,000 people needing ICU hospital beds and ventilators in the whole country, which would greatly exceed the current availability of approximately 4,000 ventilators.”

Dlamini-Zuma ’ s submissions are contained in a 3,674-page record of the material that led to the government’s decision to ban cigarettes, filed as part of a legal challenge to that decision by Fair Trade Independent Tobacco Association.

If fewer South Africans smoke, then the consumer demand for illicit cigarettes will fall