Brazil to clinch sixth World Cup in Qatar — market analysts

Brazil are tipped to claim the World Cup for the sixth time in the tournament that kicks off on November 20 in Qatar, according to a Reuters poll that last successfully predicted the champions in 2010.

The global survey of 135 football-following market analysts worldwide concurred with the bookmakers that Brazil would triumph for the first time since 2002.

Almost half of the respondents expected Brazil to win, while 30% were evenly split between France and Argentina.

Germany, England and Belgium scored in high single digits.

“Brazil have a big chance this time with the depth and variation in their attack coupled with the experience of Casemiro [midfield] and Thiago Silva at the back,” said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital in Mumbai. Brazilian talent was prominent in the poll results, with the likes of Neymar and Vinicius Jr, who have boasted brilliant starts to the club season, coupled with goalkeeping duo Alisson and Ederson shining as well.

“We assign a probability of 17% to Brazil winning the tournament, which translates to odds of 5-1,” wrote Peter Dixon, head of EMEA country risk at Fitch Solutions in London.

Dixon put Germany second at 11% (8-1) and France third at 8% (11-1). His calculations differ from bookmakers odds, which have England as third favourite compared to Dixon’s 4% chance, largely because bookies’ odds are calculated based on how much they would need to pay out, not probabilities.

Forecasters in previous years also used quant models while others used simpler methods such as guesswork and superstition. EA Sports — creator of the Fifa gaming franchise and which has correctly predicted winners of the previous three World Cups by simulating all 64 matches on their game — said Argentina would lift the trophy.

Argentina, undefeated since losing to Brazil in July 2019, are closing in on Italy’s record of the longest unbeaten streak for any team in international football.

Almost 50% of responses came from Europe, followed by North America and Asia, with about 15% each.

Spain’s victory at the 2010 tournament in SA was the last Reuters survey to correctly predict the winner.

Economists failed to forecast Italy’s fourth title in 2006 or the last two won by Germany and France. Denmark topped the list of underdogs.

Almost half of the respondents were split between expecting Lionel Messi or PSG teammate Neymar to win the Golden Ball

— awarded to the best player. The Argentine maestro last won it eight years ago in Brazil.