Covid-19 is still the number one economic risk that lies ahead of us
Some worrying signs of slowing economic momentum worldwide are emerging that suggest the foundations of the economic recovery may be weakening. It also puts recent global growth forecasts of between 5% and 6% next year at risk of proving over-optimistic.
Over the past week, we’ve seen Chinese economic growth coming in well below expectations, US industrial production much weaker than expected in September and the IMF warning that SA’s economic growth could run out of steam next year as a result of ongoing local issues.
But how accurate are these concerns, and what are the most significant risks to economic recovery that could reverse direction if bad news continues to flow in, with some even raising recession as a possibility?
In its Global Economic Outlook for the fourth quarter of this year, Euromonitor digs into some of these issues, pointing out that the global economic outlook for 2021 has “worsened moderately” since mid-2021, but this has been offset by slightly more optimistic recovery forecasts for 2022. More worrying is that it sees forecast risks as remaining tilted to the downside, with a 26% probability assigned to more negative economic scenarios and a more optimistic scenario only assigned a 2% to 6% probability.
Based on the financial news headlines for the last couple of months, you wouldn’t be misguided in believing that inflation had taken over as public economic enemy number one. But, according to Euromonitor, the biggest risk is still Covid-19, with supply constraints next in line.
Containing the spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19 will require herd immunity, which will only be attained at vaccination rates of 90% to 100% compared with 55% to 75% as of October 2021 in major advanced economies.
Says Euromonitor senior economist Daniel Solomon: “In many countries the Delta variant is likely to require a short-term return to some [physical] distancing restrictions even for vaccinated individuals, and more aggressive discrimination between restrictions for unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals. While the economic effects of recent lockdowns have been more moderate, they remain a significant drag on recovery.”
Euromonitor examines the even bigger risk of new, more infectious or vaccine-resistant variants of the virus emerging – a scenario it defines as the Covid-19 Pessimistic1 Scenario and one to which it assigns an 18% to 28% probability of occurring.
In addition to the lockdowns and physical distancing that would be required in the event of its Pessimistic1 Scenario, advanced economies would only probably attain sufficient vaccination rates to control the pandemic at the end of 2022, or early 2023, and vaccination rates in developing economies would remain low until 2023–2024.
If this scenario plays out, consumption, business revenues, employment and wages will decline significantly relative to the organisation’s baseline forecast for 2021– 2022. More specifically, it estimates that global real GDP growth would shift down into a range of -0.7% to 0.8% in 2022.
Vaccination rates in major developing economies are likely to remain below 50% until 2023, with the notable exception of China, which exceeded a 70% vaccination rate in September 2021. Lower vaccination rates and much weaker fiscal support measures than in advanced economies are expected to cause more persistent economic effects of the pandemic in developing economies.
Supply constraints are also an ongoing threat to the economic outlook, and Euromonitor envisages them continuing into 2022 “and even 2023 for some production inputs and sectors, with a gradual improvement”. It predicts that the impact of these bottlenecks on inflation would be a rise in global inflation to 4% this year, 3.6% next year and then a decline towards 3% in 2023– 2024. However, Solomon warns that there is a significant risk that inflation could remain high for a more prolonged period owing to a shift in long-term inflation expectations. Another outcome would be an ongoing globalisation reset of supply chains.
Another concern is that consumer sentiment may take a knock if the global growth outlook deteriorates. Recent data shows that consumer sentiment, too, has eased off slightly. Released in the past week, Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence Index, which is an average of 24 countries’ national indices, edged down 0.1 point in September after moving sideways for three months. Though not a significant move, it reveals that consumer confidence – the bedrock of the global economy – hasn’t increased for a quarter.