By-election victories, losses and a big shock

Veteran ANC councillor in Thaba Chweu (Sabie) Paul Mokgosinyane won his own seat back from the ANC for the African Unified Movement (AUM) in a by-election shock in Mpumalanga. This result was an outlier, as the ANC had dominant wins in the rural Eastern Cape and fended off a spirited challenge in another Mpumalanga by-election.

Ward 6 (Simile Sabie) in Thaba Chweu, Ehlanzeni: AUM 47% (0%), ANC 35% (79%), EFF 15% (17%), ACDP 3% (2%)

Ward 6 mainly comprises the Simile township next to the forestry town of Sabie. The ANC won here by a big margin in 2021, but Thaba Chweu was the municipality where the ANC struggled the most in the Ehlanzeni District, winning 60% of the vote.

Mokgosinyane won the ward for the ANC in the local government elections and served as a councillor and community leader in the Simile township for the party for a number of years. In this by-election, he switched sides and stood for the AUM.

The new council composition is ANC 15 (16), DA 6, EFF 3, AUM 2 (1), VF+ 1. Total: 27.

Turnout: 40% (41%).

Ward 8 (Amersfoort) in Dr Pixley Ka Isaka Seme, Gert Sibande: ANC (63%), Apemo 32% (7%), EFF 5% (8%)

Amersfoort is a farming town between Volksrust and Ermelo. Dr Pixley Ka Isaka Seme has the second-lowest number of voters in the Gert Sibande district. The ANC had its third-best result here, winning 62% of the vote.

The African People’s Movement (Apemo) surged to a strong second place. This party has firm roots in the Okhahlamba (Bergville) Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal.

The EFF will be disappointed with its third-place finish.

Reason for by-election: Resignation. Turnout: 48% (41%). This is higher than the 2021 local government elections, which is an encouraging sign.

Chris Hani District, Eastern Cape

The Chris Hani region is centred on Komani (formerly Queenstown) and includes the municipality of Inxuba Yethemba (Cradock). The ANC won more than 70% of the vote here in 2021. In the two by-elections in the district, the ANC’s vote share was considerably higher than the 70% district average.

Ward 5 (Qamata Wodehouse) in Intsika Yethu: ANC 91% (82%), EFF 6% (6%), UDM 2% (1%), PAC 1% (1% PR*)

Ward 5 is centred on Qamata, on the road that links Komani with Tsomo.

The DA was not on the ballot for this by-election, despite a second-place finish here in 2021 with 11% of the vote.

The ANC will be delighted with obtaining more than 90% of the vote. Reason for by-election: Death. Turnout: 32% (48%).

Ward 1 (Ngqutura) in Engcobo: ANC 95% (91%), UDM 3% (2%), EFF 2% (3%)

Ward 1 is centred on the village of Ngqutura, next to the Xuka River.

The ANC’s performance in Ngqutura would have given the party a lot of hope and motivation. It will have wanted to get north of 90% in this by-election and let the EFF and the UDM fight over the scraps for second place. Reason for by-election: Death. Turnout: 35% (46%).

Next round

The next round of by-elections will be on 20 April. It includes the first by-elections in the Northern Cape and the Western Cape since the local government elections. *The Pan Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC) did not contest Ward 5 (Qamata Wodehouse) in 2021, but was on the proportional representation ballot. It beat the United Democratic Movement (UDM) by seven votes on the proportional ballot.

[The ANC] will have wanted to get north of 90% in this by-election and let the EFF and the UDM fight over the scraps for second place