RECESSION ON THE WAY

Wages will fail to keep pace with surging prices in 2022 and 2023, the World Bank’s economists predict in the latest Chief Economists Outlook. Nine out of the 10 top economists surveyed expect real wages to decline in low-income economies. All expect food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa. They also predict rising costs of living will trigger social unrest in low-income countries. Seven out of the 10 consider a global recession to be somewhat likely, with further fragmentation and localisation of supply chains. Growth expectations have been pared back, driven in part by high inflation.