Or our country
Recommendation to impeach. By
It is a first – the parliamentary impeachment rules came into force only in November 2018 after the EFF went all the way to the Constitutional Court to get them in place.
But it’s not the first time the governing ANC finds itself in a presidential pickle. On 21 September 2008, and again on 15 February 2018, presidents Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma respectively resigned after ANC NEC decisions amid bruising infighting.
Mbeki’s recall came amid the ANC machinations that had brought Zuma to party presidential power at the 2007 ANC Polokwane conference. In turn, Zuma resigned on pain of the ANC supporting an EFF motion of no confidence after the governing party’s patience with years of State Capture ran out.
Baleka Mbete, then the Speaker of the National Assembly, received both their resignations. Though the Constitution does not expressly speak of presidential resignations – Section 88 only talks of a presidential term ending “upon a vacancy” – telling Parliament is key because the National Assembly must, according to Section 86, elect a president from its ranks.
Four days after Mbeki resigned, MPs elected his party deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe, then Minister in the Presidency, as South Africa’s new president. He in turn appointed Mbete as his deputy president.
On 15 February 2018 the National Assembly elected Ramaphosa as President – less than eight weeks earlier, he had narrowly become ANC president at the Nasrec December 2017 conference. In a late-night announcement on 26 February, he appointed his party deputy president, David “DD” Mabuza, as Deputy President of the country.
If Ramaphosa is considering resigning it would be an unprecedented self-initiated step, rather than a party recall.
And were Ramaphosa to resign, according to precedent it could bring his deputy into the president’s seat. But Mabuza has dropped in the ANC popularity stakes for a seat on the 80-strong ANC NEC, all the way down to 115 in the rankings with 210 votes, according to nominations released on Thursday.
Still, Mabuza may not become president, but acting president under Section 90 of the Constitution. That option had been on the table in February 2018, but was rejected to allow Ramaphosa to appoint his own Cabinet. In 2022 the circumstances are different, particularly if Ramaphosa also relinquishes his CR22 lead position in the ANC elective contest for the party presidency.
The permutations could be numerous – and complicated. The 2022 ANC Nasrec elective conference is just two weeks away, and Ramaphosa cannot be 100% certain of his support in the ANC NEC. Perhaps because of his narrow 2017 Nasrec conference win, it’s been mutable throughout his time at the helm at the governing party.
Though calls for Ramaphosa’s resignation have come fast and furious from the so-called Radical Economic Transformation grouping, the ANC NEC would in its deliberations from Friday have to consider the 2024 elections. And Ramaphosa remains the ANC’s voter drawcard.
He’s consistently been rated higher in public opinion and public trust polls than the party he leads. In the past two elections, including the 2021 municipal poll, it was Ramaphosa on ANC election posters in a strategic decision to appeal to voters.
As President, politicians and advisers hunkered down to consult, weigh up and do whatever necessary, South Africa’s tjatjarage politics maintained running commentary.
Turbulent times lie ahead.