Leaders in times of crisis: how our five presidents have fared Richard Calland
Read a rigorous and well-researched exploration by and of all the holders of South Africa’s highest office since democracy
Written with insight, and drawing from interviews with political insiders, The Presidents: From Mandela to Ramaphosa, Leadership in the Age of Crisis shines a light on the leaders entrusted with South Africa’s future.
As the ANC’s next elective conference approaches and Cyril Ramaphosa seeks a second term as president, South Africa is reeling from the effects of State Capture and the Covid-19 pandemic. Coupled with an ailing economy and record unemployment, the need for good political leadership is more urgent than ever.
The Presidents provides an honest assessment of the five post-apartheid presidents, examining their qualities and weaknesses in the context of the momentous challenges they faced. Read the excerpt.
***
The Ramaphosa years
Having finally become president, the question was whether Ramaphosa would be able to use his hard-won power. This is a perennial question for all politicians. The pursuit of power is their natural, and appropriate, instinct. Then the focus shifts to the surrounding context, with its many layers, as well as to the character and capability of the individual leader.
Zuma’s presidency created the mother of all crises – institutional degradation and endemic corruption, economic decline, and a crisis in political leadership that mirrored Brazil, where Lula’s presidency had led to an extreme economic downturn and negative growth of -5 per cent. South Africa was headed in that direction but had somehow pulled back from the precipice. The rule of law had held the line and the ANC had – by a tight margin – chosen a reformer as leader. There was an opportunity to get back on track, but it would hinge on Ramaphosa’s ability to deliver the necessary presidential leadership.
Ramaphosa’s political and governmental inheritance was inconvenient, to say the least: a looted state, captured, hollowed out and, in many cases, institutionally broken. In addition, for the first time under ANC rule, the country was heading towards a fiscal crisis, again of Zuma’s making. As we showed regarding his attitude to the nuclear deal, fiscal probity was not top of Zuma’s priorities in government. His finance ministers, at least until the final year when Malusi Gigaba was appointed, maintained a measure of fiscal rectitude despite, rather than because of, their president. They were assisted by the institutional capability of National Treasury, which also came under attack, but which survived thanks to the courage first of Nhlanhla Nene and then Pravin Gordhan, as well as senior Treasury officials.
Yet even in this respect, Zuma made things worse on the eve of Ramaphosa’s victory at Nasrec. On the first day of the elective conference in December 2017, Zuma held a press conference at which he unilaterally announced that tertiary education would be free for students under a certain income threshold. There was no consultation with Treasury; even Zuma’s ally, then finance minister Gigaba, was caught offguard and was visibly embarrassed when
economic downturn. According to Statistics South Africa, the economy had shrunk by 0.7 per cent in the year leading up to Ramaphosa’s presidency, signalling another recession after the 2008 global financial crisis. This recession was caused by a drop in the agriculture, transport, trade and manufacturing industries. In addition, a decrease in public service employment numbers had led to a 0.5 per cent slump in government activities.
Ramaphosa’s task was to arrest the decline and then to set the country on a different, positive course. Like a new CEO taking over a troubled, financially stricken company, he had to reverse things, to restore order, stability and prosperity. That was his mission; that was his mandate.
Then, just over two years after his first, dramatic and resounding State of the Nation
Address, and as he was still building the platform for his administration’s attempt at economic and institutional renewal, the world was hit by Covid-19, the biggest pandemic in a century. Seemingly overnight, Ramaphosa’s job became even more difficult. But he was not alone in this, at least. Across the globe, presidents and prime ministers were waking up to face a challenge they could never have imagined.
At a time of grave national crisis, the most important first step for any leader is to inspire confidence, and the best way to do that is to be clear in the messaging while conveying the impression that government is responding quickly and capably. This Ramaphosa did when faced with the Covid-19 pandemic. His first televised address to the nation, delivered on the evening of 15 March 2020, was almost word-perfect. The twenty-nine-minute speech – lengthy, but justified at that moment, when people were craving information and guidance from their president – set the right tone: it gave a sense of the gravity of the situation, and there were clearly expressed announcements about what measures would be taken immediately and why. There was also a sense of hope. ‘This pandemic shall pass,’ Ramaphosa told his audience, before invoking the spirit of his inaugural SONA: ‘This is the most definitive thuma mina moment for our country.’