Hottest years since the Cold War
Ukraine In 2023, the conflict that arose out of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the previous year has continued without let-up – and with growing ferocity. The fighting also means Russian attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and deaths among civilians continues to rise, even as the conflict results in growing army casualties and the destruction of military materiel. Almost incidentally, this conflict has also given the world vivid glimpses into how social media disinformation and cyber warfare campaigns are changing the nature of armed conflict and the way we interpret events.
The Russian economy increasingly feels the pain of its leader’s misadventure, even as Western nations are struggling to meet Ukraine’s desperate needs for its resistance against an invader.
In the US, support for the appropriation of Ukrainian aid remains the subject of congressional wrangling, as does aid to
Israel and heightened border control. The Ukrainian war war continues to tempt fate with the possibilities of fighting that may spill over into yet other nations. In 2024, that may depend on Vladimir Putin’s desperation to bring the fighting to a favourable conclusion for Russia. Already, this conflict has become the largest land war in Europe since 1945.
Israel/palestine Since the first week of October, the latest eruption of conflict in the Middle East – in one of the most violent versions of the long-running trouble in many years – is taking place between Hamas and Israel. Missile launches from Gaza and a surprise cross-border attack by Hamas that killed about 1,200 people inside Israeli territory as well as the kidnapping of more than 250 people – from small children to the elderly – provoked a vicious attack on Gaza through a major aerial bombardment and attacks by ground forces in retribution. This has been undertaken, even if the Benjamin Netanyahu government in Israel has no real sense of what will happen once this fighting ends. According to Gaza Health Ministry figures, more than 17,000 Palestinians have been killed.
Israel aims to destroy Hamas as an effective fighting force, recover the hostages and enforce new power arrangements in Gaza, but it has already exacted a massive cost on the people there even as it has not yet succeeded in its objectives – and has, in turn, provoked furious global criticism. Here, too, there exists the dangerous possibility of a major escalation in the fighting, with the involvement of Hezbollah forces to the north and even that group’s sponsor, Iran.
As with the Ukraine war, escalation real possibility.
Elections
is a
Looking forward to 2024, more than 70 nations are scheduled to have elections — including, of course, South Africa, the US, India, Indonesia and Russia (although the latter’s results are already known).
Meanwhile, repression of women in countries such as Iran remains in place and ethnic repression in China, Myanmar and elsewhere is still a constant.
Further, with right-wing victories by Javier Milei in Argentina and Giorgia Meloni in Italy (at the end of 2022), and a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, coupled with sluggish economic growth a likely reality for many nations (including China), the success of the democratic model will remain under threat globally for 2024. Not a happy thought on which to end the year.