Jackson primed for comeback
&B Met favourite Jackson makes his eagerly awaited reappearance in the Diadem Stakes at Kenilworth tomorrow and, although he is no sprinter, he is expected to run well.
He returned after a similar five-month absence to finish fourth in the Mercury Sprint over this trip at Clairwood in July. He ran to a mark of around 108 that day - 5kg below his present merit rating - and a repeat of that showing would get him into the shake-up.
“I see no reason why he can’t run a similar sort of race to the Mercury and the Kenilworth 1 200 should suit him better than Clairwood’s,” says the in-form Brett Crawford who however cautions: “We are treating this as a grass gallop for the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate and we will give him a chance.”
In other words he can be expected to be doing his best work at the end. He is unlikely to win, and he was as big as 9-2 with Betting World yesterday, but he could make the frame.
The one that should win - and at 5-1 she looks almost Christmas present value - is Welwitschia.
The Mike de Kock runner was second to All Is Secret in the Mercury, she has more than a length in hand over favourite Divine Jet on ratings and she should be cherry ripe as this is her third run after her end-of-season break.
JDivine Jet
Divine Jet (14-10) is also having his third run of the campaign and Karl Neisius’s mount might well have won the Betting World Merchants last time had he got away on terms.
He is 6.5kg better with Tevez, 1.5kg better with Chave De Oura and a kilo better with Cap Alright so it is easy to see why he heads the market.
“The start of the Merchants was a fiasco,” says Dean Kannemeyer. “They were kept waiting for seven minutes, Divine Jet got uptight and he missed the break.
“I’ve never been a great believer in the third run after a rest theory but his was a lengthy break and for four months he only walked. Now he is in top form and he has to be a big runner.”
Chave De Oura was one of the principal contributors to the “seven- minute fiasco” and his display of stubborn mulishness earned him a couple of sharp cracks. But they did the trick and the way last year’s Cape Guineas runner-up ran on puts him right into contention here.
Furthermore it was his first run for six months (he had a knee-chip operation) and he had to overcome a terrible draw. Little wonder that he is 4-1 second favourite.
Merchants winner Tevez (5-1) has little chance on the book but Mike Bass has a tremendous record in this race, winning three of the last five runnings and twice finishing second with Pocket Power.
“Tevez has a bit to do,” Bass agrees, “but he is doing well and so is Castlethorpe (25-1). MJ is keen on him and thinks he has a place chance.”
It’s hard to fancy the third Bass runner Captain’s Secret, the outsider of the party at 33-1, or the Justin Snaith second string Villa Del Largo who is a 20-1 shot.
But Cap Alright (7-1) is a different story. He relishes the Kenilworth sprint course and seldom runs a bad race here. Unfortunately his place odds are not much better than evens.
“He looks magnificent, he is on the up at the moment and he has improved,” Snaith enthuses. “He is going to run a good race.”