Trend of ageing ex-leaders on the comeback trail
RECENT global developments have caught the attention of the politically conscious. Former political leaders have either expressed their intention to return to active politics or have done so. Their arguments range from propagating the view that their successors have derailed national programmes to overtly and/or tacitly arguing that they still have something to offer their countries, drawing from previous experiences.
In Brazil, (former) President Lula da Silva made an astonishing comeback and won the recent election, defeating president Jair Bolsonaro. Protest marches have failed to overturn the results, which returned Da Silva to power.
In the UK, Boris Johnson resigned from office amid pressure exerted on him by his own party, the Conservative Party (the Tories). He was replaced by Liz Truss. However, her term of office lasted for a historic 44 days. When Truss resigned, Johnson was one of the three contenders for the prime minister position. He pulled out of the race at the 11th hour, leaving Rishi Sunak to assume the position. But Johnson was prepared to make a comeback so soon after his resignation.
Recently, news has spread globally that former US president Donald Trump intends to run for the presidency again in 2024, when the US holds its next general election. Despite his many failures, Trump and his cheerleaders still believe he has something to offer. Another interesting observation is the age factor.
In Brazil, Da Silva is 77; his counterpart, Bolsonaro is 67. In America, Trump is 76, three years younger than President Joe Biden who is 79. In all likelihood, Biden will not avail himself for the 2024 general election.
Ideally, Trump too would do well if he were to stay away from politics. There are various reasons for that.
First, he only served one term and was deemed not suitable to return as president by the American electorate. Second, during his short term as president, America’s international relations were severely affected. Third, he is old enough to stay clear from politics. Fourth, Trump is a businessman. It would be a wise move for him to focus on his businesses and leave politics to more capable, younger leaders. Fifthly and lastly, since leaving office, Trump has been on the wrong side of the law – with some cases still pending.
His running for the presidency could be interpreted as a way of shielding himself from possible prosecution by law enforcement agencies.
The UK is in a better position when it comes to the age factor. Johnson is 58,Truss is 47 and Sunak who won the last race is only 42.
One question is: why would someone who once had a chance to lead want to return to that position? There is no simple answer. Politicians are motivated by different reasons. Some feel want to correct those mistakes. Some want to use the incumbency to protect themselves – especially where the national constitution protects incumbent leaders from possible prosecution. Others do so with a clear intention to use their second coming to outplay their predecessors.
Whatever the reason(s), it is wrong to want to return to a leadership position after having been afforded the opportunity to serve the country. Even after emerging victorious, there is no assurance that the leader will do better than the previous occasion. Therefore, there is always the possibility that a leader might dent his or her political image. On those grounds, returning to power is not a wise political move.
Given this global trend, South Africa has a lot to learn. Against the issues discussed, South Africa would have to be mindful of the age factor before emulating these countries.
Former president Nelson Mandela does not feature in the debate. Even if he were still alive, Mandela was a principled leader who did not want a second term. In fact, during his fiveyear term, Mandela allowed Mbeki to do the bulk of the work after only two years in office.
As for the surviving presidents
Mbeki and Zuma, they are both 80 – an advanced age for them to want to return to power. Such a move would not be advisable.
Former Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng has hinted that he plans to venture into politics – with the possibility of running for the presidency in 2024. In principle, Mogoeng has all the right to join politics. His age – 61 – allows him to do that. However, given that he was the country’s Chief Justice, venturing into politics would not be a good move. By being politically active, he would forfeit his independence status. He had his chance to lead and did just that. So, why would he want to ruin that and gamble with his image?
In the realm of international relations and the global community, countries forge relations and learn from one another. It would be a shame if South Africa’s former leaders were to emulate the leaders mentioned above.