Unemployment rate drops

THE NUMBER of unemployed people in the Northern Cape dropped by 10.2% over the last quarter.

This is according to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for the fourth quarter of 2018, released by Stats SA yesterday.

While the unemployment rate dropped in the Province, so did the labour force, which dropped from 442 000 people to 429 000 from the third quarter (July to September) of 2018 to the fourth quarter (October to December).

The number of employed people in the Province remained fairly stable at 323 000 from the third quarter of last year to 322 000 in the fourth quarter.

The number of unemployed during this period dropped from 120 000 to 107 000.

There was however a corresponding increase in those who are not economically active, jumping from 354 000 to 369 000, an increase of 4.3%. The number of discouraged work seekers in the Province remained stable at 63 000.

The unemployment rate in the Province is now 25%, down from 27% in the last quarter, while the labour force participation rate is currently at 53.8%, down from 55.6%. In terms of the expanded definition of unemployment, the unemployment rate in the Province is 38.6%.

A total of 3 000 jobs were lost in the agricultural sector, where the number of employed dropped from 42 000 in the third quarter of last year to 39 000 in the last quarter.

The labour participation rate in the mining sector, however, increased by 4 000 from 23 000 people to 27 000, an increase of 16.7%.

In the manufacturing sector, the number of jobs also went up from 13 000 to 17 000, an increase of 27.7%. Over the last year the number of jobs in this sector has increased by a massive 93.6% from the 9 000 people employed in the fourth quarter of 2017 to the 17 000 last year.

The utilities sector in the Province, however, dropped from 6 000 people to 4 000 in the last quarter (a decline of 27.7%), while the construction sector also saw a slight decline from 25 000 to 24 000 (a drop of 5.2%).

A similar trend was also seen in the trade sector, where there was a 4.9% drop from 50 000 people employed in the third quarter of last year to 48 000 in the last quarter.

Also on the downward trend was the number of people employed in the transport sector, which dropped from 12 000 to 11 000 (16.5%), as well as the finance sector which dropped from 22 000 to 19 000 (a decline of 14.7%).

The community and social services sector increased slightly by 3.2% from 100 000 to 104 000 people employed in this sector.

In the private sector, the number of people employed rose from 27 000 to 29 000 in the last quarter, an increase of 7.5%. Over the last year, this sector has seen a 31% increase in the number of people employed.

Nationally the unemployment rate dropped to 27.1% in the final quarter of 2018 from 27.5% in the third, which has been attributed mainly to the usual seasonal rise in temporary workers during the festive season.

Over the quarter, total employment increased by 149 000, with the highest number of jobs created in the formal sector and private households. In contrast, the informal sector shed jobs after a strong rise in the third quarter.

At a provincial level the Eastern Cape recorded the highest unemployment rate of 36.1%, followed by the Free State and Mpumalanga with 32.9% and 32.0% respectively, while the lowest rate was Limpopo at 16.5%.

According to the Nedbank Group’s Economic Unit, the outlook for the job market remains cloudy in the short term due to lacklustre economic activity and difficult operating conditions in the local business environment. However, the long-term prospects might improve as recent government initiatives provide some support.

“The drop in the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter could mainly be attributed to seasonal patterns rather than a reflection of improvement in general conditions in the job market. On an annual basis (compared with the 26.7% rate reported in the fourth quarter of 2017), the unemployment rate remained higher.

“Other recent high-frequency figures indicate that the economic recovery remains slow and patchy. Consequently, there is still no evidence of any significant demand pressures on prices.

“Inflation is expected to fall further over the next few months due to the collapse in energy prices and the firmer rand.”