South Africa’s Energy Outlook 2024 Webinar

Grid constraints and greater private-sector enablement dominate discussion

Loadshedding will still be part of South Africa’s foreseeable future, while independent power producers (IPPs) will battle for grid access in the Cape provinces, attendees heard during the webinar ‘South Africa’s Energy Outlook 2024’ hosted by Creamer Media on January 24.

Panellist, IPP Office head Bernard Magoro said residual grid capacity was located in provinces that had not previously featured prominently in the renewables programme, namely Gauteng, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal.

“Obviously, the message to developers is that they need to start moving into those areas to develop their projects.”

The draft Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) 2023 focuses significantly on security of supply, with far less emphasis on wind, but includes a big uptick in embedded generation, said Paul O’Flaherty from EY Parthenon when facilitating the panel discussion.

Energy Council of South Africa CEO James Mackay lauded the very different response out of government over 2023, resulting in an enhanced business–government partnership.

“The IRP 2023 has made a firm commitment to engage with business and, in general, with society, around the pathway or the future of our energy sector. However, there are areas of the plan that can be improved,” he cautioned.

MDA Attorneys director Vaughan Hattingh agreed with Mackay on the level of government engagement in the IRP 2023, but noted that this should go hand-in-hand with engagement with contractors and generators around guarantees.

The on-demand guarantee required by Stateowned power utility Eskom – a typical instrument to secure performance by contractors – “raises the question of whether or not and to what extent this onerous type of guarantee is indeed necessary”, he noted.

Despite the decline in the wind allocation in the draft IRP 2023, wind remained a key part of the energy mix, advised Nordex Energy MD Compton Saunders.

“We have seen the private market develop and

closing or attempting to close large volumes of wind. We will see some of the largest wind farms in the country come online in the next two years. I am confident that wind will remain a dominant technology.”

Actom group business development executive Mamiki Matlawa added that there was no doubt that South Africa could supply balance of plant in the renewable energy space.

“We need to continue promoting localisation through partnerships that involve technology transfer to advance industrialisation. We need to continue on that trajectory to enable the use of equipment produced locally for upcoming projects.”