El Niño not only factor affecting summer cropping decisions

Summer grain producers remain concerned about the possible development of an El Niño event later during the planting season, but this is not the only factor affecting their management planning for 2018/2019.

According to Grain SA chairperson, Jaco Minnaar, there was no doubt that grain producers would be monitoring climate developments, but producers would have to evaluate their individual circumstances when making planting decisions, taking into consideration the soil moisture condition on their farms and their personal risk profiles.

Manager of specialised crop insurance for Santam Agriculture, Johan van den Berg, indicated in his latest agricultural conditions outlook report that the development of El Niño was still in its “infant phase”.

As a result, there had been serious deviation in the rainfall forecast for October, which was generally weaker than previously expected.

Although the initial early El Niño development had not materialised, Van den Berg said there was now an increased possibility of persistent El Niño development.

“This is not good news because development this late in the season can be very negative for rainfall in the second part of the season,” he said. It was important for farmers to remember that an ‘El Niño year’ did not necessarily translate into a poor production year, Minnaar said. “One good downpour can make or break a harvest.”

According to Minnaar, planting for the new summer crop production season was already well advanced in the eastern parts of Mpumalanga and parts of KwaZulu-Natal. However, the situation was more varied in the eastern Free State.

In the western production region, the optimal planting window for maize extended well into December. – Sabrina Dean