China likely to produce bulk of world’s macadamias by 2025

About 63% of the global macadamia supply was forecast to be produced by China by 2025, according to industry experts.

Alex Whyte, sales and marketing manager for Green Farms Nut Company, told Farmer’s Weekly that the world supply of macadamias would increase considerably over the next seven years, with South Africa, Mozambique, Malawi and Kenya all producing more nuts.

A press release by Green & Gold Macadamias, a macadamia marketing agency, said recent estimates showed that China’s production currently represented around 8% (18 000t) of the global crop of 213 000t per annum. Based on the country’s midtier internal projections, China estimated that it would produce around 450 000t by 2025.

“If China meets its proposed growth it will change the nature of the industry, with a projected growth of 300% in supply to an estimated 800 000t,” the statement said.

Whyte said South Africa currently produced about 52 400t of dry nut-in-shell, which accounted for about 25% of global supply.

“I don’t believe there will be a price collapse when volumes increase. At the moment macadamias are the most expensive nuts after pine nuts.

“The price may soften in dollar terms, but I believe we are only scratching the surface in terms of markets,” Whyte said.

He added that Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Russia also held potential as export markets for South Africa.

“Demand in China will grow even more. It currently consumes all its own production and imports more to meet local consumption. The market may absorb an increase in volume. Marketing companies will, however, need to do some long-term thinking.

“More volume means new opportunities. It may encourage new product development, which was put off as the market had scarcity of supply,” Whyte said. – Gerhard Uys