POLITICAL PERSPECTIVE: Hoping for a 2019 of peace and understanding

In this last column for 2018, I will look at trends in the current political environment that will have an important impact in 2019. The first is the general election. It is almost impossible to underestimate the importance of this election. Much of what President Cyril Ramaphosa does is determined by this fact. For example, the recent cabinet reshuffle, which was almost a non-event, was part of the waiting game Ramaphosa must play. He needs to keep his enemies (Bathabile Dlamini and Nomvula Mokonyane) close until the power of their faction (the Zuma group) can be broken after the election. It is an election that the Ramaphosa faction in the ANC must win.

We have just begun to see the ‘teeth’ of Ramaphosa’s anti-corruption operations in government, especially at the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into Allegations of State Capture (Zondo Commission). Pravin Gordhan is now the chief corruption enforcer as minister of public enterprises, where he can uncover all the intricacies of state capture. He testified at the Zondo Commission, and as more and more people were implicated, attacks on him have intensified.

The second point of attention is the EFF. The party’s attack on Gordhan, coupled with Julius Malema’s attacks on journalists, may also lead to suggestions that the EFF has something to fear from those in the media who have suggested that Malema and other EFF leaders benefitted from the recent VBS bank scandal. Where there is smoke, there is fire!

Also to consider with regard to the EFF is the party’s impact on the election.

This party has a prominence that outstrips its size and it is fomenting racial intolerance in South Africa. Together with the Black First Land First (BLF) movement, the EFF bases its policies not on what can be done, but on emotional rhetoric that sounds good to people who have been let down by the political and economic systems.

Unfortunately, this trend will continue and may even increase as the EFF’s commander in chief is an excellent rabble-rouser. I am urgently waiting for legislation that will force political parties to declare where their funding comes from. This will be a very interesting revelation, especially since the noise from the BLF and EFF is increasing as the state capture inquiry comes closer to the crux of the matter, and the VBS bank saga comes under ever-closer scrutiny.

Forming new alliances

The third point is that new alliances will be formed in 2019. The EFF has proved itself to be an effective kingmaker, but watch out for Patricia De Lille’s new party. She said she would contest the election in all nine provinces. In reality, she will only be a factor in the Western Cape, Northern Cape and Gauteng. This will be important not because of the huge numbers she will garner, but due to the margins her party will achieve. She can also become a kingmaker by offering alliances, and she is a lot closer to the ANC and the EFF than she is to the DA.

The DA has been beset by internal squabbles and has a leader who seems to react only to ‘special’ events. As a party, the DA seems to be building a campaign more on voters’ dislike of other parties than on being a viable alternative. The party does, however, govern effectively where it has a majority. The polls will be the final arbiter.

Lastly, land reform and expropriation without compensation will take place, but the question is how. Ramaphosa wants to do it in such a way that it is done and dealt with fairly, so that South Africa can move on, the economy is strengthened, and the ANC’s Freedom Charter is honoured.

However, the EFF and other groups will never be satisfied with this as they want a fundamental restructuring of all land ownership. For this reason, I am not comfortable with changing the Constitution. But this too will most likely happen.

Ramaphosa wants to do land reform fairly so that South Africa can move on