MIXED EXPECTATIONS for grain production in 2019

With local soya bean production expected to continue expanding, oilseed processing capacity needed to be addressed, and secure soya bean export channels would have to be put in place.

This was according to Luan van der Walt, economist at Grain SA, who said that South Africa’s soya bean production had reached record levels for the past two consecutive marketing seasons. “Production for the seasons was 1,32 million tons and 1,58 million tons respectively,” he said.

Van der Walt estimated that the 2018/2019 season would end with a soya bean surplus of about 600 000t, which was nearly four times the “preferred end-season stock level”. He added that South Africa was still importing too much soya bean oilcake, despite producing sufficient volumes of beans.

The Crop Estimates Committee’s (CEC) latest forecast for plantings in the 2019/2020 marketing year indicated that the area planted to soya bean could increase more than 8%, from nearly 790 000ha to over 850 000ha.

According to the latest International Grains Council Market Report, global soya bean production would be at record levels in 2018/2019, with an 8% year-on-year increase to 367 million tons.

Locally, production had been hampered by a lack of rain during the optimal planting period, with numerous producers in the eastern Free State not able to plant in time.

Jaco Minnaar, Grain SA chairperson, said this would likely result in an adjustment to the CEC’s first area estimate to be released at the end of January. He said almost no producers in the western production regions of the Free State and North West had planted at the time of going to print. – Sabrina Dean