SA SOYA BE AN consumption and processing set new records

The soya bean market is looking increasingly favourable for farmers, as domestic consumption and crushing reach record highs, with international production challenges also expected to support better prices.

Grain SA economist Luan van der Walt told Farmer’s Weekly that domestic soya bean stocks were low at present following an increase in crushing since March. He said a new consumption record of over 142 000t was set in August, with consumption in September just slightly below this at over 141 000t.

“Processing was also very good, and in September we saw an all-time single-month crushing record of [almost] 123 800t.”

He said 30% more soya bean were processed in the country between March and September this year than during the same period in 2018.

A smaller soya bean harvest was anticipated in the US, but that country still had relatively large stock levels due to the trade dispute with China, he said. There was, however, a lot of uncertainty about the soya bean crop in South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina.

“Weather conditions there meant they planted less than intended and it was done later,” he said.

The US Department of Agriculture said in its latest production report that US soya bean production was estimated to be 20% lower than last year.

While there was good scope on the domestic soya bean market, the lack of rain in the eastern production regions of South Africa had delayed plantings. Van der Walt said that by 11 November, soya bean plantings in Mpumalanga were only at between 10% and 20% of the intended area. However, it was hoped that farmers would be able to plant after widespread rain was received there and in the eastern Free State recently.

The rainfall was also expected to stimulate maize plantings in the eastern parts of the country. Van der Walt said prior to the rainfall, only about 30% to 40% of intended maize hectares had been planted in Mpumalanga, with the figure in the eastern Free State at around 10%.

He said the planting season in the western production regions had not really started yet, with the optimum planting window being between midNovember and mid-December.

Van der Walt said the US harvest was expected to be smaller than initially thought, with maize prices on the international market at low levels. He said intended maize plantings in South America might also be negatively affected by late soya bean plantings.

The International Grains Council’s latest forecast indicated a third successive year-onyear decline in world grain stocks, due to “a contraction of maize inventories to their [lowest] in six seasons” in the US and China. – Sabrina Dean

stocks are low after a hike in crushing