Farmer's Weekly (South Africa)
African swine fever disrupting global commodity trade
The loss of almost half the Asian pig population has resulted in an unprecedented shortfall in animal and plant protein worldwide, which in turn could result in trade opportunities for South African producers. Glenneis Kriel reports.
Since the first occurrence of African swine fever in China a little over a year ago, the viral disease has spread to Mongolia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Hong Kong, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines and Russia, as well as North and South Korea.
Although the extent of the losses is still uncertain, in mid-November the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimated that more than 10% of the total pig populations had been wiped out in China, Vietnam and Mongolia, while Rabobank estimated in September that herd losses in China were close to 40%, heading to 50% by the end of the year.
The situation was not only devastating for Asian producers, but had far-reaching international implications, as China previously accounted for almost half the world’s pig population. The loss of half of these animals would therefore greatly disrupt international trade.
Supply shortfall
Johann Kotzé, the CEO of the South African Pork Producers’ Association, said that there would be an excessive demand for animal and plant protein to make up for this shortfall, so prices for both these categories of products were set to increase for at least the next two to three years.
“The losses will result in traditional meat exporters such as Spain, Germany, the US, Brazil and Canada increasing production, but the potential for expansion [in these countries] is relatively small. Chances are therefore better that they will revert to exports from low-paying countries, such as Africa, to Asia,” he said. The situation therefore presented a great opportunity for South African meat producers.
Kotzé added that this demand could be met by increasing the capacity and efficiencies of small-scale producers, or through production expansion in the rest of Africa.
‘ It will be difficult for Asia to get rid of the disease’
“The idea is not to supply China, but to supply the shortfall of meat that will develop in Southern Africa and the rest of Africa.”
It was highly unlikely that the disease would soon be contained in Asia, and it was expected it would become endemic to the region.
“It will be difficult for Asia to get rid of the disease, as the virus is extremely tough and able to survive for long periods if the right protocols are not followed and animals are not disposed of correctly,” Kotzé said.
Vaccine rumours
The situation was being exacerbated by rumours that a vaccine had been developed, resulting in farmers using illegally produced products in an attempt to save their animals.
“Some of the best scientists from all over the world have been working for more than 20 years to develop a cure for African swine fever. While having a cure would be great, it’s highly unlikely that one would miraculously appear now,” he said.
Locally, sporadic outbreaks of African swine fever had also been reported among informal small-scale producers in North West, the Northern Cape, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, and the Free State during this year.
The disease was, however, endemic to Africa, resulting in South Africans having years of experience and highly effective biosecurity measures to prevent the spread of the disease.
Farms were also situated far apart and they were ‘compartmentalised’ to restrict the movement of animals and people, whereas piggeries in Asia were located in close proximity to one another, and the pigs were often sold at informal markets.
Outbreaks in South Africa were thus usually restricted to backyard production and were not found in the commercial sector, he said.