AGRIBUSINES PERSPE CTI VE: Can SA help East Africa with an impending food crisis?

While the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is rightfully the focus of global attention, in some regions of Africa, the greater crisis at the moment is arguably the desert locust infestation that seems unrelenting and without a solution.

The locust swarms first arrived in East Africa in June last year, feeding on hundreds of thousands of hectares of crops and pastureland in at least eight countries (Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan).

The situation is said to be getting worse now, with a second wave of locusts estimated to be 20 times worse than the plague that descended on the region two months ago. According to the UN, a swarm of just more than a third of a square mile can consume the same amount of food in one day as 35 000 people.

Needless to say, this locust infestation crisis take place amidst the COVID19 pandemic, which itself is having far-ranging consequences for global food supply, further exacerbating the already volatile situation. This could result in a food crisis of unprecedented magnitude in a region recently devastated by conflict and climate change shocks.

However, the question needs to be asked whether South Africa is in a position to assist its East African neighbours.

It is fundamentally important to take into account that the full consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for global agriculture is not yet evident. Certainly, as the largest commercial farming country in Africa, South Africa’s agricultural production has not yet been significantly disturbed by the pandemic.

Data release by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) shows that South Africa’s 2019/2020 summer crop production could increase by a further 1,83% to 17,1 million tons from the previous estimate of

16,8 million tons. This is mostly attributed to favourable weather conditions, which supported an expansion in area planted and an improvement in yields.

This season’s maize, soya bean and sunflower seed crops are estimated at 14,8 million tons, 1,3 million tons, and 731 210t, or an increase of 1,7%, 2,11% and 4,5% respectively, compared with the first estimate released in February.

CHALLENGES

SOUTH AFRICA’S AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY COULD CONTRACT IN 2020

There are, however, a number of concerns. One of these is the growing view that the agricultural economy might contract in 2020, even if the current crop estimates materialise. While such a contraction won’t necessarily be at a production level, any contraction further down the value chain could have a knock-on effect for producers.

Due to the current situation, there is evidence that a number of farmers are starting to experience an impact on farmgate commodity prices. However, the impact will only really be felt in coming months.

It is therefore too early to suggest that South Africa is in a position to assist the East African region and other countries on the continent that are showing signs of a potential food crisis. It must be understood that the full scale of the COVID19 pandemic has not yet revealed itself.

One can’t help but wonder what will happen if the situation in South Africa and other countries in Africa reach the levels of infection currently being experienced in Europe and the US. Fortunately, there is scientific evidence to suggest that if current lockdown restrictions are widely observed, South Africa will fare better than these regions.

Whether or not South Africa will be in the position to assist other African countries with food shortages is thus difficult to say. One thing is certain, however, and that is that South Africa has a significant amount of grain in storage, and given this season’s crop estimate, this volume will increase significantly. With demand from the feed industry slowing down, there will be an opportunity to export more grain, and some of this could end up in East Africa.

However, it was vital for producers to start putting plans in place in the event that the ban was not lifted, because the demand for barley would plummet, he said.

These plans needed to include the production of other crops, such as wheat, canola and oats. “Ample supplies of wheat and canola are available, but there is a shortage of oats seed at the moment.” Grain producers in the southern part of the winter grain production area started planting early in April. In the

AGRIBUSINESS PERSPECTIVE BY HAMLET HLOMENDLINI Hamlet Hlomendlini is an agricultural economist. Email him at hamlethlom@gmail.com.

ANNELIE COLEMAN ABOVE: Barley producers in the Western and Southern Cape have been advised to consider planting alternative crops, as the ban on alcohol, due to the COVID-19 lockdown, has resulted in barley demand plummeting.