Policy Perspective: Is South Africa reaching its tipping point?

Amidst the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity experienced in South Africa, there are hopeful signs that bridges are being built and the corrupt will stand trial. POLITICAL PERSPECTIVE by Theo Venter.

Politically, 2021 got off to a turbulent start. We have just experienced a full year in a state of disaster due to the COVID19 pandemic, which decimated the already weak economy and weakened government’s ability to act with resolve.

We have also gone through the second wave of COVID-19, but our vaccination programme lacks energy and urgency. We had good rainfall across most of the country, but our infrastructure is strained due to a lack of maintenance. In addition, we have a strong political commitment to combat corruption, but the major facilitators of corruption – such as Jacob Zuma, Ace Magashule and Markus Jooste – have not yet seen the inside of a jail cell.

It is now common cause that the corruption pandemic between 2007 and 2017 was as detrimental to the economy as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

PARADOXICAL AND AMBIVALENT

The words paradoxical and ambivalent come to mind, especially from an agricultural point of view. The current situation can be referred to as a VUCA condition. The acronym VUCA was developed in the military environment and refers to volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. These situations are very difficult to manage as they deny the decision maker any predictability which, in turn, increases the cost of doing business.

Issues that support the VUCA notion are the volatility of the rand, the outcome of politics in terms of the proposed constitutional amendment to allow the expropriation of land, and the competing factions within the ANC. Senekal and Ficksburg represent the political ambiguity very well. The events in Senekal in 2020 represented the image of a polarised South Africa. Although civic society is doing a great deal to mend that image, the EFF squaring up to the farming community is a well-established political fact.

Ficksburg, in the same region of the Free State, represents the opposite. In March, the already debilitated roads linking Ficksburg, Fouriesburg, Ladybrand and Senekal became virtually impassable due to a total lack of maintenance and damage caused by good rainfall.

The Ficksburg farming community then blocked the roads to traffic using large farming machinery. What was unique about their action was that they did so in mutual agreement with taxi associations, business people in town, and with support from other civic groups. They protested in such a way that they solicited the unspoken sympathy of the local police and traffic authorities, and compelled the Free State MEC for Police, Roads and Transport, Sam Mashinini, to inspect the roads and commit to repairs.

Ficksburg is not the first rural town to experience a lack of service delivery, but what is extraordinary about the Ficksburg protest is that results were achieved not in court, but by bringing several communities together under the umbrella of caring, organised farmers.

REACHING TIPPING POINT

Going to court is sometimes a necessary last resort, but building bridges between communities is the only sustainable way forward.

Apart from tipping the scales in a weakened state and an absent government, we are also witnessing changes in the ruling party in the run-up to a local government election in September or October this year. The media has carried many stories about the Magashule/RET faction and their push back against President Cyril Ramaphosa and his efforts to curb corruption through, inter alia, the Zondo Commission.

And then we saw that those with the loudest voices were not necessarily those with the real political power!

The tipping of the scales came a day or two after the Ficksburg roadblock. Despite Magashule saying that the ANC should not vote for a DA motion to investigate the Public Protector’s fitness to hold office, the ANC parliamentary caucus did exactly that.

To add further insult to injury, the influential Joel Netshitenze wrote an opinion piece on 22 March indicating that the Magashule faction was busy eroding the ANC from inside. The space in which the Magashule faction operates was further shrunk by initiatives such as the Defend our Democracy movement set up by 337 ANC veterans and other leaders in society. If the fact that Zuma had to appear in the Constitutional Court on 25 March for contempt of court is added, as well as several other corruption cases that are ready for court, then we can clearly see that the scales are tipping. Theo Venter is the special adviser at NWU Business School. Email him at Theo.Venter@nwu.ac.za.

THE CORRUPTION PANDEMIC WAS AS DETRIMENTAL TO THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY AS COVID-19 WAS