Good rain boosts regional maize harvests and dries up South Africa’s neighbouring markets

Given the larger-than-normal white maize harvests expected in a number of sub-Saharan countries this year, South Africa will have to explore other export markets to the north and in the Far East for its own surplus. South Africa’s yellow maize harvest, however, is utilised mostly as livestock feed.

Maize accounts for about 70% of total grain output in Southern Africa, an indication of the importance of the crop.

Most households in the region rely on maize as their primary source of food, with cassava, rice, wheat, sorghum and millet acting as the main substitutes.

WHITE AND YELLOW MAIZE

The region produces both white and yellow maize, although South Africa is the only country where yellow maize is cultivated in considerable volume, and it is utilised mostly as livestock feed.

South Africa is also the region’s leader in the production of maize and the main exporter of the crop to international markets.

During years of relative surplus, significant quantities of both formal and informal cross-border trade take place among Southern African countries.

In this regard, white maize dominates maize trade flows and South Africa undertakes much of the trade.

This has been particularly the case when its counterparts in the region have fallen short of their required output for domestic consumption.

This year, however, it appears that the situation will be slightly different: reliance on South African exports to the area is set to diminish as the rest of the region’s maize output looks to be promising.

IMPROVED MAIZE PRODUCTION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Zambia’s maize production could reach 3,5 million tons (up 69% year-on-year) in 2021.

Similarly, Malawi’s maize harvest is estimated at 3,8 million tons (up 25% year-on-year), Mozambique’s at 2,1 million tons (up 8% year-onyear), and Tanzania’s at 6,3 million tons (up 8% year-on-year).

Even Zimbabwe’s crop for the 2020/21 marketing year is estimated at 2,7 million tons, an increase of almost 200% from the 907 628t harvested in the previous production season.

According to the USDA, this is Zimbabwe’s largest maize crop since the 1984/85 marketing season, and is attributed to an expansion in area planted, as well as relatively good rainfall.

However, while this may be Zimbabwe’s biggest maize output in almost four decades, experts have cautioned that it is still a dismal performance at a yield of just 1,4t/ha.

South Africa provides a sharp contrast in this respect. While maize farmers in this country are anticipated to harvest just 5% more of the crop year-on-year (y/y), thanks to favourable weather, yield is dramatically higher.

According to the fourth production estimate of the Crop Estimates Committee, the domestic crop should be just shy of 16,18 million tons from slightly more than three million hectares planted, which amounts to an average yield of 5,9t/ha. This includes commercial and smallscale production, with the former accounting for the largest share by far: an expected 16,2 million tons from about 2,75 million hectares.

Yields in South Africa are thus four times higher than those expected in Zimbabwe, a country previously believed by some to have been a breadbasket for the continent.

The current maize production figures imply that South Africa will continue to be a net maize exporter.

LOOKING FURTHER AFIELD

Annually, South Africa consumes just over 11 million tons of maize. The surplus, which is likely be almost five million tons this marketing year, is made available to export markets, which usually include countries in Southern African and markets far east and north of the continent.

Given that a number of Southern African countries anticipate increased maize output this year, it is expected that the bulk of South Africa’s maize exports will be delivered to countries outside of Southern Africa.

However, it has to be said that Zimbabwe’s food security remains stressed despite improved yields in staple crop harvests, so reliance on food imports from South Africa will not be totally diminished, and the same holds true for other neighbouring countries.

Hamlet Hlomendlini is an agricultural economist. Email him at hamlethlom@gmail.com.

MOST OF SA’S MAIZE EXPORTS ARE LIKELY TO BE DELIVERED TO COUNTRIES OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN AFRICA