Conflict and its effect on food insecurity

At the time of writing this column, Russia was increasing its military presence on Ukraine’s border, with the threat of an imminent invasion on the cards ( see story on page 19).

The threat of war in Europe is truly unsettling, and brings to mind the many articles I have read in the Farmer’s Weekly archive about the impact of the First and Second World Wars on food production and security.

These articles are obviously windows into the world’s recent past, but the current threat looming over Europe is bringing home the reality of increased food shortages, further supply chain disruptions, and increasing food prices. These are the realities we already face on a global scale: access to affordable food is a problem for hundreds of millions of people; supply chain disruptions have been ongoing since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic; and food prices around the world have steadily risen, largely because of the increase in the costs of farming inputs and distribution costs. However, these challenges are likely to grow exponentially should a war break out in Europe, and many studies have shown a direct link between conflict and food insecurity.

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) said in a February 2021 article titled ‘Food insecurity crisis mounting in Africa’ that acute food insecurity in Africa increased by over 60% from February 2019 to February 2020. While the growing food insecurity in Africa was partly due to COVID-19-related distribution and production issues, as well as climate-related challenges like droughts and flooding, the ACSS cited conflict as the primary driver of increasing food insecurity in Africa. It went on to say that 90% of the countries facing the greatest food insecurity in 2020 were in active conflict.

In another article published in October 2021, the ACSS said that conflict was driving record levels of acute food insecurity in Africa. Analyses of the Arab Spring have shown that the rise in food prices in 2011 exacerbated pre-existing social unrest, which ultimately led to the protests in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco.

Many African countries are in a fragile state, with political instability and rising poverty putting them on a knife’s edge in terms of social cohesion. While Europe seems like a long distance away, conflict in this region will lead to an increase in food prices and production costs across the globe. For African countries not already in the grips of conflict, this may be the final straw, as food will become even more inaccessible to the poor, while inequality will also rise. What Africa (and the rest of the world) needs is strong leaders with the well-being of their constituents as their primary goal. Unfortunately, this type of leader seems to be in short supply.

Fortunately, South Africa has farmers who produce food at an affordable price. We are also self-sufficient in many important commodities. This is not to say that conflict in Europe won’t affect South Africa; however, some of this may be mitigated by our farmers’ ability to produce enough food.

Some of our counterparts in the rest of Africa are not so fortunate.