Dry start to the rainy season in the Western Cape

While most of the country is experiencing above-normal rainfall, the South African Weather Service recently issued a statement forecasting below-normal rainfall and higherthan-usual temperatures for the south-western parts of South Africa from late autumn to early winter.

However, independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Bergh said the indications of this were not very strong, and had led to conflicting forecasts of normal rainfall. “At this stage, it is really difficult to say what is going to happen,” he said.

According to Villiers Loubser, president of Agri Western Cape, little to no rain in autumn had become the trend over the past few years in the Western Cape, with the rain usually only arriving at the start of winter, towards the end of May.

He added that it would have been much easier if the rain had come early on in the planting season, and that the later arrival of rainfall had resulted in pastures germinating later, which in turn drove up the costs of feeding livestock.

Andries Theron, a farmer in the Swartland region and chairperson of Grain SA’s marketing work group, said that grain farmers were not particularly concerned about the forecast, even though they had not received much rain at the start of the planting season.

“In the past, farmers had no option but to wait for the rain to be able to plant. The use of conservation farming practices, such as stubble retention and minimum to no tillage, combined with improved wheat varieties, have changed all that, and we are now able to plant in dry soil,” he said.

“Many farmers were only able to plant in moist soil in two of the past 10 years, but this didn’t have any major impact on yields.”

Toit Wessels, Grain SA’s assistant manager for marketing and Nampo, agreed, saying that the situation would only become a crisis “if it did not rain towards the end of May”.

While the new planting estimate for winter crops had not yet been released at the time of going to print, Theron expected the total area planted to wheat to increase by about 5% this season from the previous season’s 523 500ha, which yielded 2,57 million tons. He also expected farmers to plant less barley and more canola thanks to favourable vegetable oil prices.

“Grain farmers are, [however], quite set in their rotations, and have little room to greatly increase the production of specific crops. The cost-squeeze has also resulted in shrinking margins,” Theron said. – Glenneis Kriel

THE SITUATION WILL ONLY BECOME A CRISIS ‘IF IT DOES NOT RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF MAY’