Farmer's Weekly (South Africa)
Agriculture urged to lead the way in keeping South Africa food-secure
Grain producers make a significant contribution to South Africa’s food security, but greater effort should go towards creating a more sustainable future for the industry, according to speakers at the recent 2023 Grain SA Congress.
South Africans ought to recognise the country’s grain producers for the role they play in terms of food security. Nonetheless, the industry itself needs to take decisive steps to prevent food insecurity in the long term. This was according to Sam Rolland, director of sub-Saharan Africa at the Economist Intelligence Corporate Network.
Speaking at the 2023 Grain SA Congress held recently at Nampo Park near Bothaville, Rolland said the probability of the world not being able to produce enough food was escalating markedly. Increased volatility and uncertainty could be expected on markets over the next five to 10 years.
He added that the prices of gas, oil and base metals would continue at high levels for as long as the Russia-Ukraine war lasted.
“Prices will remain high even as inflation drops. Risks of geopolitical tensions, an escalation of the war, the possible emergence of COVID-Ȳ19 variants, and (the impact of rising) sovereign debt in 2023 are some of the factors that will add to global volatility and ambiguity.
The era of cheap financing for companies is over,” he warned.
While it had initially been thought that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine would last only between five and six months, it had become a war of attrition with a high possibility of new entrants and escalation. While this did not necessarily mean more severe volatility, it did imply extended unpredictability.
Rolland also alluded to the disruptive effects of climate change in 2022 that had resulted in rising global food insecurity, adding that the changing seasons were likely to increase the probability of worldwide food insecurity.
“So-called ‘black swan’ climate events [used to be] unprecedented and unexpected, but are no longer uncommon in the world,” he said. “This is underpinned by widespread extreme climate events such as increased incidences of drought, floods and the failed monsoons on a global scale.”
Food insecurity was bound to drive conflict; a hungry population was an angry population that voted with its feet, usually for the politicians that shouted the loudest, something Grain SA needed to take serious note of.
According to Rolland, the fact that South Africa was seemingly cosying up to Russia could cause problems with the country’s relationships with the US and Europe. The availability of equipment, financing and lines of credit could become increasingly difficult, resulting in an upsurge in the cost of doing business.
“I would advise Grain SA to take cognisance of these issues, and the South African agriculture sector to assume a leadership role in the implementation of advanced technological innovations, including artificial intelligence. The time has come to lead the way in terms of innovation and technology in the fight against food insecurity,” Rolland said.