Second grain crop estimate generally edges higher

The Crop Estimates Committee’s (CEC) second summer grain crops estimate shows an increase in yield for most crops in South Africa.

According to the CEC’s data, the production forecast for white maize was over 8,3 million tons, up 1,92% or 157 225t from the previous forecast of 8,2 million tons.

The revised estimate for area planted to white maize was just over 1,5 million hectares, down 3,4%, while the expected yield was 5,49t/ha.

The production forecast for yellow maize was more than 7,5 million tons, up 1,4% or 107 250t from the previous expectation of over 7,4 million tons.

The revised estimate for area planted to yellow maize was a little over one million hectares, an increase of 1,6% from the first forecast, and the expected yield was 7,1t/ha.

The second forecast for sunflower seed was 797 610t, up by almost 3% from the previous forecast of 775 260t. The area expected to be planted to sunflower seed was 555 700ha, representing a decline of around 17%, while the expected yield was just over 1,4t/ha.

For soya bean, the production forecast increased by 2,2% or 58 470t to just over 2,7 million tons. The estimated area planted to the crop was 1,1 million hectares, up 24%, and the predicted yield was just under 2,4t/ha.

For groundnuts, the production forecast was 49 080t, representing a drop of about 4% or 2 075t from the previous forecast of 51 155t. The revised estimate for area planted was 31 300ha, down 15%, and the expected yield was roughly 1,6t/ha.

Sorghum production was expected to reach 109 400t, which was 2,6% less than the previous forecast. The area expected to be planted to this grain was down 8,6% to 34 000ha, and the forecast yield was 3,2t/ha.

The dry bean harvest was expected to reach 47 930t, the revised estimate for area planted was 36 650ha, and the expected yield was 1,3t/ha.

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, noted that South Africa’s 2022/23 summer grain and oilseed crops were now in the pollination stages in some regions, while others were maturing.

“This could be another excellent season if weather conditions remain favourable.

“Notably, [we are] already [seeing a] softening [in the] maize price, which is now hovering at around

R4 000/t. This is roughly as it was a year ago and well below the higher levels we saw a few months ago.

“Sunflower seed and soya bean prices have also moderated, with spot prices currently trading at around R8 192/t and R8 660/t respectively,” he said.

‘WE COULD SEE AN EXCELLENT SEASON IF THE WEATHER REMAINS FAVOURABLE’