Look before you leap!

Dr Lukeshni Chetty, general manager of the South African National Seed Organization.

Dr Peter Evans, chief executive of the South African Pork Producers Association.

HOW DID 2023 TREAT PORK PRODUCERS?

The past seven years were difficult because of challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, high animal prices and various diseases Fortunately, feed prices softened in the second half of 2023, which helped to improve farm profitability.

WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR 2024?

The current lower feed price cycle is expected to continue in 2024 and will allow producers to build on the improved economics. Pork prices, which trended below R30/kg in 2022, rose to the high R30/kg mark in the last few months of 2023, and are expected to remain in the mid-R30/kg level in 2024.

WHAT ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS TO THE INDUSTRY?

The energy crisis is negating much of the improvement in pig production economics, that is better prices and lower feed costs, with load-shedding making it especially difficult for smaller-scaled producers to survive.

It seems our African swine fever awareness programme is paying off, but diseases remain a major challenge.

The biggest challenge, however, is uncertainty. Farmers are dealing with political, price, energy, climate and disease uncertainties, and these are making it difficult to make well-informed decisions and plan for the future.

WHAT IS YOUR ADVICE TO PORK PRODUCERS FOR 2024?

Uncertainty will persist, and probably even intensify as we head to the elections. Farmers should thus be cautious when planning expansion to ensure they do not overextend themselves.

In terms of diseases, farmers should beef up their biosecurity, as it is the first line of defence against disease.

IF YOU COULD CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE INDUSTRY, WHAT WOULD IT BE?

A more predictable future to allow producers and the industry to better plan for market, cost and disease shifts.

WHAT IS THE BEST ADVICE YOU HAVE RECEIVED THAT WOULD ALSO BE APPLICABLE TO FARMING?

To never stop learning. Things are constantly changing in the agricultural industry, especially in terms of new technologies, so farmers need to familiarise themselves with these and adapt to remain competitive.

Another is to ‘look twice before you leap’. This is especially important in an environment where things are so uncertain, and mistakes are expensive.

HOW DO YOU PERCEIVE THE AGRICULTURAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE PAST YEAR?

SANSOR and its members form a critical part of the agricultural value chain, with the production of high-quality seed and investment into newer varieties containing better genetics as well as sales at an affordable cost to customers.

I am proud to report that, to a large extent, the industry managed to maintain this despite the challenges over the past two to three years.

For SANSOR, the biggest achievement in the past year was hosting the International Seed Federation’s World Seed Congress from 5 June to 7 June 2023 at the International Convention Centre in Cape Town.

We managed to bring the global seed world to Africa, and I believe that this event had a major impact for seed trade and opportunities for South African and African seed businesses.

WHAT WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES FOR THE YEAR AHEAD?

We believe that the effects of El Niño and climatic conditions in general, will have an impact on seed production.

Additionally, the continued impact of load-shedding will also place an extra burden on seed producers and input suppliers. Lastly, the difficult economic climate in which our farmers and our members have to operate adds to the already heavy burden on the industry.

However, in spite of this, the South African seed industry will ensure the availability of seed to farmers.

IS THERE SOMETHING SPECIFIC THAT SANSOR WILL BE FOCUSING ON?

The seed sector is a critical partner in the food value chain.

Seed forms the foundation of food production and is a vital starting point for crop production. Without quality seed, there will be no harvest.

Quality seed is, however, not only needed for food production, but also for land restoration, rehabilitation, reclamation and conservation.

With its members, SANSOR will continue to focus on sustainable seed production, the supply of quality seed, and access to seed for all farmers.

As the seed industry we recognise that food systems should be equitable, inclusive, and environmentally friendly, but we also acknowledge that we are faced with an enormous challenge to produce sufficient, safe, and nutritious food.

SANSOR, as mandated by the Certification Committee, continues to provide valuable technical input into the ever-evolving OECD Seed Schemes, ensuring that South Africa complies with international production and certification practices to facilitate the international movement of certified seed.

WHAT IS YOUR END-OFTHE-YEAR MESSAGE?

It is my ardent wish that 2024 will see better prospects for the seed and agricultural industry at large. SANSOR will continue to show resilience and serve the seed industry as we know that our role is critical to food security not only in South Africa, but in our region and indeed, in the world. Our aim is to remain positive albeit the many challenges that face us on many fronts.

With the support of our members and the industry, we are committed to provide you with the best representation possible.

Rodney Bell, CEO, CropLife South Africa.

HOW DO YOU PERCEIVE THE AGRICULTURAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE PAST YEAR?

It is always difficult to provide conclusions on agriculture in South Africa according to the calendar year as our summer-rainfall region growing season spans over the end of one calendar year and the start of the next. From the perspective of the plant protection solution industry, I can, however, comment in general on our industry for the past 12 months.

Before any plant protection solution can be marketed or sold on the South African market, it needs to be authorised for such use according to Act No. 36 of 1947, as administered by the Agricultural Inputs Control Directorate of the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development.

This means that obtaining such an authorisation, or product registration, is our industry’s ‘right to operate’. It is important to reiterate this as 2023 brought some new focus areas for suppliers and distributors of plant protection solutions to our industry.

After the COVID-19 lockdowns, the global supply of certain plant protection solutions was severely impacted, and it took many months for global supply to stabilise; 2023 was a year of sufficient supply but very volatile pricing as the post-COVID-19 shortage was overcome and volume demand slipped to ‘normal’ levels; lower demand meant pricing volatility globally.

WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL AFFECT AGRICULTURE WITH REGARD TO CROPS IN 2024?

The first new focus area was the introduction of the Globally Harmonised System for the classification and labelling of chemicals (GHS) to South Africa. This new legislation meant that every company holding a registration for a plant protection solution in South Africa had to spend considerable time on the reclassification of not only the active ingredients, but also all co-formulants, used in the manufacture of the products they have registered and that they provide to South African farmers – a huge undertaking as our industry and farmers are currently in the transition phase of the project, where the new GHS-compliant product labels are appearing on the market while farmers may still have stock of the same product carrying a label from the previous labelling system.

CropLife SA has engaged with as many grower associations as possible to provide guidance on this matter and interested parties can refer to the CropLife SA website for information.

Another piece of legislation that came into force in 2023, which will impact farmers in 2024 and in the future, is the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) legislation for packaging.

The specific regulations covering the packaging of pesticides are now in force, with 2023 being a significant year for CropLife SA members to prepare for the legislation being fully enforceable from September 2023.

WE ARE HOPING THE MEDIUM-TERM IMPACT FROM THE SHIFT IN FOCUS ON PLANT PROTECTION WILL BE MITIGATED

The EPR has introduced a requirement for the creation of a circular economy for all packaging in South Africa. For the packaging of pesticides, CropLife SA is well advanced, with multiple-collection points and recyclers already in place in all parts of the country. Farmers need to understand their responsibility under this new legislation – empty pesticide containers must be triple-rinsed (at the time of mixing into the spray tank), punctured, and returned to a local collection point closest to them. To obtain further details, the individual or company supplying the farmer with his/her plant protection solution can be contacted. The CropLife SA website has a container management section where lists of empty pesticidepackaging collection points can be found.

The final piece of legislation that was introduced recently is the latest regulation in support of Act No. 36 of 1947.

Most of the new clauses impacting CropLife SA member companies and farmers come into force in 2024.

Therefore, in the coming months, CropLife SA will be communicating to member companies and farmer associations in order to share the relevant parts of the latest regulations and how they will impact our industry.

There is greater focus on the environment, user and consumer safety of plant protection solutions and a number of existing plant protection solutions are going to be lost from our farmers’ plant protection toolbox. Thankfully, the new regulation also considers how to bring replacement products and new technologies to the plant protection solution market soon, so we are hoping that the medium-term impact on South African farmers will be mitigated.

As can be seen from this, with regard to our industry’s ‘right to operate’ in South Africa, there are a number of laws that will impact the industry and South African farmers in 2024. CropLife SA is striving to keep its members and farmers informed of developments, and these efforts will continue through 2024.

ANY SPECIAL MESSAGE?

A great deal has been written in the agriculture media about the rainfall season that our country can expect as we go into 2024. We will therefore not add to that discussion apart from extending our best wishes to all CropLife SA members and their customers, the South African farmer, for a successful growing season.

Nongcebo Langa, Diners Club Young Winemaker of 2023 for her 2022 Delheim Gewürztraminer.

HOW DID 2023 TREAT THE WINE INDUSTRY?

The 2023 season was a terrible, incredibly challenging season. Heavy bouts of rain in December 2022 resulted in high fungal disease, while viticulturists and winemakers had to be highly innovative to alleviate the effect of above-average rain, from the end of February until the end of March, on wine quality. The wine grape harvest turned out to be the lowest in a decade, and the fourth-lowest in history.

Delheim was fortunate, as most of our wine grapes were harvested by the time the rains came.

WHAT WERE THE BIGGEST LESSONS FOR YOU FROM THIS SEASON?

To expect the unexpected. I learnt a lot from our cellar master, Roelof Lotriet, who had experienced seasons like this before. Also, I never imagined I would win the Diners Club Young Winemaker of the Year Award, or be asked to participate in a wine panel on women in wine.

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE 2024 SEASON?

Positive. Dams are full, we have good soil moisture and the crop is looking promising. We hope the weather and market will play along.

WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES TO THE WINE INDUSTRY?

Issues will differ from farm to farm and cellar to cellar. The biggest concern is how climate change will affect production and what the industry can do to adapt without this having a negative impact on quality.

The trend of localisation in overseas markets is another challenge. Hopefully, this trend will also result in South Africans drinking more local wines.

Along with this, pressure is mounting in overseas markets for food and beverages to be produced in a more sustainable way. An example of this is the European Green Deal.

The wine industry is evaluating how this shift will affect the industry and looking at ways to comply and minimise its impact.

WHAT IS THE BEST ADVICE YOU HAVE RECEIVED AS A WINEMAKER?

Things are never as bad as you think. Catastrophising is not going to help you through a crisis. You need to stay focused. When you feel overwhelmed, look at the end goal, and then work back from there.

Theo Boshoff, Agbiz CEO

HOW DO YOU PERCEIVE THE AGRICULTURAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE PAST YEAR?

It was another challenging year for South African agricultural value chains. But market forces started to self-correct as we saw the costs of shipping and agricultural inputs such as fertilisers and agro-chemicals start to decline. These are, however, still above pre-COVID levels in relative terms.

Although an element of normality returned, unfortunately the decline in public services such as power, logistics and service delivery continued to weigh on the sector’s competitiveness.

The number of days we experienced load-shedding this year provides some concept of the magnitude of the challenges; from 2019 to 2021, South Africa experienced 15, 30 and 54 days of load-shedding, respectively.

In 2022 this number climbed to 205 days and in October 2023, Eskom projected 286 days for the year. As always, the sector was actively engaged to find solutions, but the question must be asked how long we can remain competitive under these challenging circumstances. The sheer resilience of the sector remains an inspiration.

WHAT WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES FOR THE YEAR AHEAD?

Many of the challenges from previous years will continue to press on the sector’s margins in 2024 but that does not mean that no progress is being made. The Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill was recently published for public comment while we hope the Freight Logistics Roadmap will be approved by Cabinet. Both of these instruments level the playing field for the private sector to participate in the energy generation and logistics frameworks. A tremendous amount of work has been done to get these proposals to their current state, but it is vital that they both be finalised and accepted before Cabinet and Parliament break for the elections. Legislative and policy changes will not resolve our challenges overnight, but they provide hope, the most precious commodity.

WHAT DO YOU THINK IS NEEDED FOR THE YEAR AHEAD?

Competitiveness will remain key for the survival of farmers as well as the agricultural sector in the year to come.

WHAT ARE YOU OPTIMISTIC ABOUT?

On the trade side, we are cautiously optimistic that South Africa’s continued inclusion in AGOA may be clarified early in the year. Likewise, the six new country additions to BRICS bodes well for South Africa and allows us to punch above our weight on the global stage. At a summit in 2023, business institutions from all BRICS members were unanimous in their desire to see economic benefits follow from the BRICS partnership. The stage is set for progress to be made in 2024.

We are fortunate that we still benefit from the following advantages in the broader agricultural sector: ȊȲWe have a robust financial industry; ȊȲWe protect intellectual property rights; ȊȲWe have a high techology uptake; ȊȲWe can take advantage of counter-seasonality with the Northern Hemisphere;

ȊȲWe have a diverse climate in the country supporting various sectors; ȊȲOur geopolitical positioning is good and very important; and ȊȲWe have an agile and loyal private sector operating in the agricultural environment.

WHAT KEY TRENDS TO DO YOU EXPECT IN 2024?

Some of the key trends include consolidation of businesses and farming enterprises, the unpredictability in the global arena and weather patterns, protectionism as well as a focus on activism.

ANY SPECIAL MESSAGE?

While most of South Africa takes their rest, those in the table grape, deciduous, stone fruit and other commodities value chains are entering their peak season.

We wish these companies all the best and a blessed festive season.

Francois Strydom, CEO, Senwes.

The year 2023 will be remembered for, among others, high interest rates and high inflation rates.

However, the good news was that by the end of 2023 it seemed as if the peak of the increases in both had been reached and could be expected to move sideways and even fall in 2024.

There increases meant that the global economy shifted over the past three or four years from an input-driven environment to a demand-driven environment. Fact of the matter is that the consumer now calls the shots in the economy.

PRESSURE ON VALUE CHAINS

Nowadays consumers know exactly what they want and what they are prepared to pay, putting immense pressure on production value chains.

This pressure was even more evident locally because of the way the ANC government has ravaged the country and brought it virtually to a standstill for political gain.

South Africa finds itself in a terrible state of affairs. Fortunately, the ruling party’s extremely poor performance exposed its true nature to the broader

South African society, including the business sector. It left an evergrowing realisation that they had to fend for themselves and take responsibility for the future. To keep on complaining about the extremely challenging situation we find ourselves in would be folly.

We have to make things work, and this goes particularly for the entrepreneurial and business sectors in the country. This is precisely what the respective agricultural value chains have been doing and they will continue to do so in 2024.

TOUGHENED UP

What we’ve seen so far is that the heavier the pressure is on the value chains, the more resilient and robust they become,.

The national elections planned for 2024 will afford local communities an opportunity to stand up to ineffective governance, and consequently, issues such as extremely low employment rates, rampant wrongdoing and uncontrolled crime.

If South Africans do not vote out the depraved leadership in the country, 2024 will be in a much worse state than 2023.

A concern is the negative climatic forecasts for 2024 and the possible negative impact this could have on agricultural production.

CHALLENGING CONDITIONS

Nevertheless, the agricultural sector as a whole and its value chains specifically have ample experience in managing difficult production years. We vividly remember the devastating drought of 2015/16 and have the corporate memory to adapt to changing conditions.

The resilience of agriculture coupled with a deep understanding of the country’s dependency on the Almighty give me hope. Were it not for the suppleness of the country’s agricultural value chains, South Africa would already have been in a deeper state of despair.

Dewald te Water, Agricultural Writers SA Farmer of the Year for 2023. HOW DID YOU FARE ON YOUR FARM OVER THE PAST YEAR?

It was a tumultuous year where both weather and market conditions were against us. Hail and then the lack of rain when we needed it meant that some of the soya bean and maize fields did not yield their potential. There was also a sudden and unexpected drop in the grain price, which added to losses. So it was not a good year for grain farmers.

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR YOUR INDUSTRY?

I am cautiously optimistic. The aim is always to do things better than the previous year, and save where you can. With the weather prospects being so uncertain, it is important to remain calm, and not rush to cut inputs to save money, but then end up curtailing your crop. You increase the soya bean plantings to cut costs since it is cheaper than planting maize. However, creating an imbalance of crops on your farm is also not ideal. So I will stick to my recipe for success and do everything I can to ensure a good yield.

Keeping a close eye on the market is also important to achieve as high as possible a price for my grain to make up for last year’s low prices. I will be giving my full attention to the market this year.

WHAT WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES?

Our weather patterns are very volatile and forecasts seem to be changing very quickly. A 10-day forecast can’t be trusted any more. So weather will be a big challenge. We completed our maize and soya bean plantings on time, so now we just have to hope the rain falls as it should. Any opportunities will lie in how I manage my silage division. If the rain is not sufficient by February, then I will use more of my maize for silage because it will be too much of a risk to let it mature for a May harvest as the lack of rain will negatively influence quality. If it is a dry year then the demand for silage will also be higher, and I would then be able to provide for the demand.

WHAT ARE YOUR GOALS FOR 2024? IS THERE SOMETHING SPECIFIC?

I want to expand my silage component and grow the export side. Although we are in a more conservative mindset due to the volatile weather and low prices, I do have a three-year plan to increase my grain storage facilities so that I can sell when the price is right.

On the snack production side, I want to focus more on marketing of the products and wider distribution.

If production decreases due to adverse weather on the longer term, then I can still make ends meet with a higher-value product, which is why this is my focus.

Generally, it is important to keep up with the times.

Farming practices of yesterday are no longer relevant tomorrow and it is important to keep moving forward, keep learning, and strive to improve.

Izaak Breitenbach, CEO, South African Poultry Association.

From December 2022 the industry was impacted by the excessive levels of load-shedding that cost it millions of rand in diesel bills and losses in production efficiencies.

The load-shedding had by the end of year not abated and continued to affect the industry.

As if this was not enough, the first flock was hit by avian influenza in April and this disease proved to be disastrous for the industry. As much as 30% of the national flock was culled to contain the spread of the disease. In Gauteng, 95% of broiler breeders were culled. This caused enormous losses to the industry not only in birds lost but also lost future production of approximately a year.

LOSSES

No compensation was offered from the side of the state to mitigate the effect of the losses in terms of the Animal Diseases Act of 1984, nor assistance from a fund that Deputy President Paul Mashatile announced in 2023. It is imperative to compensate farmers for the birds culled as per the Act to help the industry recover as quickly as possible in the quest to ensure food security in the country.

2024 will be a year when industry will need to tirelessly work towards achieving breakeven profitability. Twenty-percent of layer hens in the country were culled in 2023. The layer hens lay table eggs and the reduced supply of table eggs has resulted in an increase in table egg prices. The shortage will persist well into 2024.

While the cost of raw materials eased off since July 2023 the load-shedding prognosis remained bleak for 2023.

REDUCED GRAIN CROP

We are also expecting an El Niño weather phenomenon coupled with an expected reduced grain crop, which will obviously impact on feed prices. However, it is still early in the new season and we don’t really know what the crop production is going to be like in 2024.

In spite of the fact that the industry has embarked on a vaccination campaign against high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI), the vaccination will not be in time to curb the current H7 outbreak of the disease. It was, however, envisaged that all breeding material would be vaccinated by the end of 2024, greatly assisting in alleviating the impact of any new influenza outbreaks. We see 2024 as a year of recovery from a very difficult 2023.

END THE BIRD FLU OUTBREAK

We will need to vaccinate flocks and get rid of the current outbreak of HPAI, hedge our feed or grain purchases, and hope for the best in terms of load-shedding.