Macro-trends for agriculture in 2024

Irecently came across an article by Farmers Review Africa that focuses on the macro-trends we can expect to see in agriculture in 2024. I thought it may be of some interest to the Farmer’s Weekly readers. I will offer an opinion on these trends, and whether I believe they will be driving factors for agriculture this year.

Trends in the sector are usually influenced by global factors, such as fuel prices, as well as more local conditions, such as climate variability.

According to BKT, which compiled the report, historical data and an analysis of industry trends over the years had been used to determine what the company believes are the driving trends for 2024.

First and foremost, BKT believes that global agriculture will see an increase in conservation tillage as new EU policies come into effect. However, I don’t share this sentiment. Massive farmer protests in Europe, including France and Germany, which are major agricultural hotspots for agriculture in Europe, are showing a move against the EU’s green policies. As such, government policies on conservation farming are not being received with much delight by farmers, at least in Europe. Furthermore, farmers’ profit margins are declining, reducing their desire to invest in less conventional farming. I honestly thus don’t believe that we will see a greater move away from conventional farming; perhaps this trend will move sideways in 2024, but I doubt we will see a major increase in farms deciding to move more towards conservation farming.

BKT also believes that certain crops will become more expensive, particularly in Europe. This is probably a true concern, as unfavourable weather, farmer protests and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war are likely to result in smaller yields and thus more expensive produce.

BKT also predicts that the use of glyphosate in Europe will be extended until December 2034. As there is currently no real alternative to glyphosate, I believe BKT is on point with this prediction. I believe South Africa will also see a continued use in glyphosate in the near future at least.

Further, BKT predicts that there will be more extensive use of precision farming technologies. I think this is true across the board for global agriculture and South Africa. Despite farmers being under pressure, they realise that precision agriculture is a long-term investment that will ultimately improve yields. As such, they will continue to invest in this kind of technology. Moreover, not all precision technology is expensive.

Another trend BKT highlights is a growth in electric solutions for agricultural machinery. This is another trend I am not particularly convinced of, considering the cost involved in investing in new, electric machinery, and globally farmers’ current distaste for government policies seemingly driving this conversion.

It is going to be a busy year for agriculture, regardless of the driving trends. However, we must remember that farming is a business, and farmers are thus likely to invest in technology or practices that they are convinced will ultimately make them more money. Those are the trends that will make a marked difference in 2024.