Good rain forecast for SA and Namibia in March

Indications are the El Niño weather phenomenon is on the wane in the Southern Hemisphere. This could mean an increase in rainfall in the western parts of South Africa next month, according to Johan van den Berg, independent agricultural meteorologist.

He said in the latest AMT weather forecast that a few tropical storms had developed during the past few weeks over the Indian Ocean because of increased sea temperatures. The combined effect thereof was an increase in the inflow of tropical moisture to the areas where the storms, occurred. This resulted in belowaverage rainfall in the western parts of South Africa with inflow of moisture towards to the tropical storm areas.

“Very little rain is therefore expected until the end of February and even the beginning of March. However, from March, the pattern is expected to change with above-average rainfall expected in the western parts of the country.”

He ascribed the expected weather changes to sea temperatures cooling. This followed the changes in the El Niño phenomenon, said Van den Berg. In South Africa, El Niño reached its peak in September last year, but by December, the weakening of the phenomenon had become evident, given the decrease in sea temperatures. The Southern Oscillation Index showed signs of the changing weather patterns and that tropical storms were moving from east to west. Van den Berg said in the report, which also covered Namibia, that little rain is expected south of Windhoek for the time being.

“In areas such as Mariental very little, very little, if any, rain fell so far this summer. This is expected to last until the second week of February. This is because the tropical moisture in Angola, Zambia and Tanzania is moving eastwards and not southwards towards Namibia,’ he explained.

According to Van den Berg, no significant rain was expected in that country for the next three weeks.

However, the rapidly waning El Niño also bode well for Namibia and more could also be expected in the second half of March. It seems the La Niña phenomenon is to replace the La Niña over the winter with considerably more general rain to be expected in Namibia in the 2024/25 summer season.

RAPIDLY WANING EL NIÑO IS TO BE REPLACED BY LA NIÑA BRINGING RAIN