The autumn Absa AgriTrends 2024 edition

This is the first of two future outlooks that will be published by Absa AgriBusiness this year, helping producers and other role players to use the analysis to evaluate the possible risks associated with commodities.

Over the past few years, businesses and agribusinesses alike have had to navigate through tumultuous and uncertain conditions, which made the business landscape increasingly difficult. While dealing with shocks and uncertainty in agribusiness presents challenges, shared insights within the agriculture sector are crucial for successfully navigating these circumstances. Analysts often use a process that includes looking back at past events, usually by comparing actual results with earlier predictions, and analysing the reasons for any differences.

Predictions usually take into account several aspects expected to impact the future direction of agricultural economics. It is important for producers and creditors to use future outlooks to evaluate the possible risks associated with commodities. These perspectives influence strategic decision-making by aiding in predicting future prospects.

Understanding one’s risk as a supplier enables the implementation of risk reduction and risk management strategies. Traders and consumers get useful insights into the possible hazards associated with their investments in commodities. Researchers note that traders’ risk appetite might be affected by factors including producers’ actions, unanticipated occurrences like weather variations, currency rate movements, and geopolitical situations.

IT EXAMINES INTERSTATE DISPUTES, GEOPOLITICS, LOGISTICAL DISRUPTIONS, MACRO-ECONOMIC TRENDS, AND CLIMATE ACTIVISM

Absa AgriBusiness shows dedication to stakeholders by consistently releasing two yearly outlooks. The outlooks are carefully crafted by industry experts and provide significant insights into several factors that influence the future.

The viewpoints provide a macroeconomic examination of worldwide issues that have had significant effects on the agriculture industry in South Africa. The research takes a proactive approach towards the livestock and grain sectors and highlights the need for high-value export goods. It also offers a macro-economic overview of South Africa’s pressing concerns that directly affect the development of stakeholders, such as logistical bottlenecks, and non-tariff trade barriers.

The Absa AgriTrends publication, released in quarter one and quarter three annually, offers a thorough study for individuals in the agriculture sector to efficiently navigate the industry’s future. The piece analyses the influence of worldwide and regional variables on market pricing, along with the interplay between supply and demand forces. This research utilises a thorough technique to understand how global events have influenced the trajectory of commodity markets by examining the fundamental causes and processes.

The Absa Agritrends autumn edition, set for publication in March this year, takes a novel approach in analysing the anticipated influence of trends on commodities. This edition utilises an analysis that emphasises fundamental concepts of commodities and explores economic interdependencies affected by global events.

The previous AgriTrends edition, published in the spring of 2023, examined the influence of worldwide and regional weather patterns, power outages, and market forces on South Africa and other countries. Absa AgriBusiness also investigated how these elements would influence our future business practices. Through shared intelligence, analysts concluded that the sector was resilient enough to handle disruptions and uncertainties and develop a stable future for South African agriculture.

THE LATEST OUTLOOK

In recent months, the global agricultural and food market has seen a downturn, while other major trends have become more pronounced and are impacting the operations of agricultural producers in South Africa. The autumn 2024 issue of Absa AgriTrends examines interstate disputes, geopolitics, logistical disruptions, macro-economic trends, and climate activism.

The first chapter focuses on the influence of protectionism and shipping interruptions on agricultural markets. Chapter 2 discusses the price movements of grains and oilseeds caused by a supply response and reduced demand from major importing nations. Chapter 3 focuses on livestock markets, highlighting the persistent issue of animal disease. Chapter 4 examines vegetable patterns and the consequences of market closures on South African output. Chapter 5 focuses on high-value export sectors, emphasising the critical role of effective and flexible logistics in ensuring sustainability. The issue concludes with a section on environmental, social and governance (ECG) issues, stressing the significance of digital technologies in creating value for farmers.

Absa AgriTrends acts as an initial platform for dialogue among industry stakeholders with the goal of fostering partnerships, setting common goals, discovering possibilities, and advancing the agriculture sector.

To read the full publication, visit absaagritrends.co.za. Our latest edition will be released on 18 March with a more detailed overview.

Email Marlene Louw of Absa Agribusiness at marlene.louw@absa.africa.