Measures to protect trade and food security

Although there has been extensive planting of staple crops, dry conditions have been increasing in many parts of SA, necessitating some precautionary steps to ensure the food supply chain. By Dr Sifiso Ntombela.

South Africa experienced good rains at the beginning of the season, which suggested that there was a delay in the El Niño cycle. Subsequently, farmers planted a large area equivalent to 4,4 million hectares of maize, soya bean, sunflower, groundnuts and sorghum. However, weather patterns are changing and drier conditions have intensified in recent months.

Between November 2023 and January 2024, the SA Weather Service noted below-normal rainfall received in large parts of the country. This has led to a significant drop in the official yield forecast of grain crops by the Crop Estimate Committee.

The crop harvest estimates released in February 2024 indicate that white maize could be down 17% and soya bean 22% on last year. The low rainfall and heatwaves remained in March, which implies a reduction in the grain harvest. Even though the anticipated harvest is lower than that of the previous season, South Africa is likely to meet its local maize and grains domestic demands due to reserves from last year’s crop and the expected harvest in the current season. However, exports are likely to be negatively affected by the heatwave-induced yields reductions in the current marketing season. According to the supply-demand estimates jointly prepared by the industry and the National Agricultural Marketing Council, the country has health crop reserves.

The weather conditions are concerning and require government, industry and other food value chains players to put measures in place to safeguard food security and ensure business continuity for farmers. Already, the markets are reacting to possible crop shortages for white maize. The premium currently for white maize compared to yellow maize is around R1 000/t and the white maize price has increased 30% in recent months.

SAFEGUARDING FOOD SECURITY AND OPEN TRADE ‹ Preserve the availability and access to food for all South Africans

The primary focus should be on ensuring that South Africa has adequate grain stocks to protect domestic demand and that of the Southern African region. If domestic stocks experience pressure, the state must consider the voluntary declaration by all grain traders to monitor the stock levels and amount of maize and other grains available in the country. The state must work with industries to ensure the declaration of all deliveries of grains at the silos and confirmed international orders, that is exports and imports of grains. This will assist to keep the market informed with accurate data and minimise market price volatility because the markets will be operating on symmetric and transparent market information.

‹ Upscale domestic production for animals and human consumption

The Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD), working with the traditional leaders, communities and industries, must identify potential rural areas and land reform farms that are suitable for the production of staples such as maize, dry beans, sorghum, and soya bean. Public resources should be improved for programmes such as Ilima/Letsema and the Comprehensive Agricultural Support Programme to upscale local production.

‹ Improve efficiency and openness of the food trade

South African agriculture is tradeorientated, exporting a variety of

agricultural commodities and importing certain commodities such as wheat, fertiliser, poultry and palm oils. If the weather conditions deteriorate further, there might be a need to import white maize to compensate for local demand.

DALRRD working with industries must synchronise import standards and permit-issuing processes focusing on countries like Argentina and Mexico to ensure efficiency in issuing import permits without jeopardising food safety and biosecurity control on pests and diseases in the country.

‹ Ensure local farmers’ business continuity

In difficult times, both commercial and subsistence farmers face an increasing problem of financial stress, which at times leads to business closure. There is a need to create a special fund to safeguard the business continuity of farmers, not only grain farmers but also livestock farmers that might be impacted by drought, especially in the coming winter months.

The business continuity funding solution should be able to temporarily support farmers with payment holidays on their debt and also make new loans affordable.

Dr Sifiso Ntombela is president of the Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa and special adviser to Minister Thoko Didiza in the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development. Contact details: sifiso@igrodeals.co.za.

ALREADY, MARKETS ARE REACTING TO POSSIBLE CROP SHORTAGES FOR WHITE MAIZE