Tracking five key crops’ performance on the market

As always, the intricate balance of supply quantities, quality factors, and global demand dynamics closely shapes the fluctuation of vegetable prices in the market, says Absa AgriBusiness.

In the domain of agricultural commodities, the dynamic relationship between supply and demand maintains a major influence on market pricing. As we explore the field of vegetables, it is crucial for growers, distributors and consumers to have a detailed grasp of these relationships.

This article covers the price patterns early in March for cabbage, carrots, onions, potatoes and tomatoes, and examines the variables that influence their market directions.

CABBAGE

The average cabbage price saw a week-on-week increase of 8,2% at the conclusion of the first week in March. The monthly price trend showed an increase of 29,2% (see Graph 1), escalating from R2 2476/t to R3 200/t. The monthly price increase was driven by a substantial 12,1% decrease in the quantities of produce delivered to the top five markets.

The average market price for February 2024 was over 50% lower compared with February 2023, mostly because the volumes in February

2024 were nearly twice as high as the previous year. The cabbage price is projected to follow a lateral trend due to consistent demand and quality.

CARROTS

Carrots showed a weekly price rise of 12,4% and a monthly decrease of 9,4% on average (see Graph 1).

There was a 0,4% decline in the quantity of supplies provided.

The market quality has shown improvement, with Delmas and the Western Cape continuing to be the primary supplying regions. Prices are forecasted to slightly rise as the amount of goods provided is projected to grow into March.

ONIONS

The local onion market is currently being supplied with onions from the Western Cape region, as well as minor quantities from the Northern Cape. The Western Cape mostly provides high-quality Class 1 produce, with a limited quantity of Class 2-grade onions being distributed in the market.

The average price of onions exhibited a weekly rise of 12,4%, followed by a monthly surge of 21,2% (see Graph 2), with prices rising from R3 952/t to R4 788/t.

Analysts have seen a 9,5% decline in the amount of volumes delivered, mostly because producers in the Western Cape have redirected a significant portion of their output to international export markets. Due to the higher profit margins associated with exporting onions compared with the local market, the monthly volume supplied to local

THERE HAVE BEEN DELAYS IN THE POTATO HARVEST SEASONS IN GAUTENG AND MPUMALANGA, ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO START IN APRIL

markets decreased from 7 794t to 6 960t for the week ending 1 March. In April and May, prices are projected to rise to the same levels seen in 2023 due to global onion shortages. South Africa then exported a substantial supply to other countries, resulting in a scarcity of onions in local markets.

POTATOES

Since the second week of February, potato prices have begun to decrease (see Graph 2). The majority of these potatoes originated from the eastern Free State, Christiana in North West, and smaller quantities arriving from Limpopo and elsewhere in North West.

However, there have been delays in the harvest seasons in the Gauteng and Mpumalanga regions, which were originally scheduled to start in April. The weekly average price show a 4% decrease, which was then followed by a 13% decline in the monthly average.

Nevertheless, the volumes also saw a downward trend, resulting in an 11,8% decrease in monthly volumes. The decline in pricing may be attributed to a decrease in the quality of the provided produce, which was caused by heavy rainfall in the two Free State regions, resulting in lower yields. Analysts predict that there will be an uptick in consumer demand as we get closer to the Easter holidays, leading to an increase in prices by the end of March.

TOMATOES

Between January and February 2024 there were early indications of volume recoveries. The quantities delivered increased by approximately eight times between the two months.

The average price saw a 23,7% increase compared with the previous week and a 4,7% increase compared with the previous month (see Graph 3) for the week ending on 1 March. This may be attributed to a reduction of 8,2% in the monthly average volumes.

Analysts predict that tomato prices will decrease for the remainder of March as a result of a higher influx of tomatoes onto the market.

Email Zama Sangweni of Absa AgriBusiness at Zama.Sangweni@absa.africa.