Financial Mail - Investors Monthly
EDITOR’S NOTE
Where to put your money
FIRST, LET me apologise for not communicating to readers of Investors Monthly that we don’t publish in the months of December and January, because those have historically been the slowest advertising months for most magazines. I have had to field quite a few e-mails and phone calls from irate readers. It did assure me that we are doing something right.
I am sure that at the start of every year since the turn of the century, South African investors have asked themselves the same question. Should I be putting my faith in foreign markets or keep it local? And at the end of every year, to date anyway, you wouldn’t have done badly if you had chosen to keep your investment on the JSE, either tracking the all share or some of the star performers in recent years, such as retail.
Since 2008, the sector where you were most likely to be burnt was resources. The index is still 40% off its all time high, and it’s a very, very long way back to those lofty levels of yesteryear.
The fortunes spun from the JSE don’t mean an offshore investment hasn’t borne fruit. On the equity front at least, foreign companies are mostly in good shape, after years of cutting costs at home and pursuing growth in emerging markets. This goes for most of the blue chips, except banking shares, which remain under regulatory scrutiny.
So in this edition of IM we take a look at this age-old South African pastime of local versus offshore investment. It was never the case that an investor should dump one for the other; the strokes aren’t that broad. Regular contributor Stephen Gunnion looks at all the different scenarios faced by investors.
Last year we looked at the lower oil price and expected some fallout this year. With the price still weak, although it has rallied a bit because of supply concerns, Gunnion also asks who in the global economy is likely to benefit.
Andile Makholwa looks at our local retail market, which has surprised on the upside despite the pressures on the consumer. He asks how much a lower petrol price has put in the consumer’s pocket and who will benefit. Some are talking up 2015 as the year of the South African consumer, now that higher interest rates are off the table.
This edition marks the IM debut of Financial Mail writer Stephen Cranston, who takes over the fund analysis pages.
Regular contributors Thabi Leoka, Warren Dick and Garth Mackenzie also return for the first edition of the year.
It may be a bit late to wish you a prosperous and happy New Year, but given the confidence-sapping start with power cuts and political noise about, it wouldn’t do any harm if there was a bit of a reset.