No easy solutions
I’m sceptical that the underlying fundamentals of SA have deteriorated anywhere near as sharply as sentiment in the past year
I grew up in the smallish town of Newcastle in northern KwaZulu Natal. Going back to visit is simultaneously depressing and comforting. At lunch on Sunday the first subject of conversation was the persistence of crime. After each person had recounted
their experience, they dismissed any likelihood that the police would ever catch the perpetrators.
The absence of leadership from a government preoccupied with the ANC’s internal party struggle has become increasingly stark. President Jacob Zuma has made more public comments defending the expenditure of public funds on his private KZN residence than he has on the horrific developments in the mining industry, which will have long-term economic ramifications for SA. Then there was the ANC’s fourth (or fifth) delay on the implementation of e-tolling in Gauteng.
Gold Fields has effectively decided to deal with the uncertainty in the local mining industry by separating its “mature” SA operations. Most platinum producers have opted to pacify workers by giving out shortterm wage hikes while quietly planning to retrench large numbers.
I recently listened to a friend sketch what he saw as the main causes of discontent in the mining industry. Four factors emerged: first, widespread poverty; second, SA’s large income inequality; third, the lack of government service delivery; and fourth, the lack of belief in government and private sector leadership.
There are no easy solutions but my pet bugbear, the pathetic state of education, has to take a large part of the blame. Instead of providing useful education that would have boosted the economy and reduced inequality, government kowtowed to the SA Democratic Teachers’ Union.
My sister’s helper in Johannesburg recently told me she would not be voting at the next election because she didn’t believe in the government any more. But she couldn’t bring herself to vote for the opposition. My daughter’s nanny in Cape Town says she will be
14 doing the same. I’ve heard many long-term ANC members who hold senior positions in the private and public sectors share similar sentiments.
Before this becomes a rant, I need to point out I’m also wondering if this is not perhaps the worst point for negative sentiment. The fourth quarter of 2012 is certainly the worst point for the current account deficit. The messy politics, rampant corruption and lack of performance management or accountability in government are persistent problems. But I’m sceptical that the underlying fundamentals of SA have deteriorated anywhere near as sharply as sentiment in the past year. Once the ANC’s internal conflict gets out the way, this should stabilise.
According to the Sunday newspapers, the leadership race for top spot in the ANC has already been won by Zuma. Fortunately, both frontrunners for deputy president look reasonably solid: incumbent Kgalema Motlanthe and the respected Cyril Ramaphosa. The ANC conference scheduled for December 1620 should provide some certainty.
There are three major sets of roadworks between Johannesburg and northern KZN. I also noticed municipal roads in Newcastle are much improved and public buildings freshly painted. None of this means the national problems in education or the police force will be resolved, but they are positive steps.
The main issue now is whether Zuma can avoid further credit ratings downgrades in his second term, or whether he will rationalise them as being in line with negative ratings action in the rest of the world. Next year’s budget will be a key guide to policy — and to the ability of the Zuma government to take (hard) necessary decisions.