Why Android wins
It’s in consumers’ best interests for Windows Phone and Blackberry 10 to emerge as strong platform alternatives
Though a pitched battle is going on between competing mobile platforms, Google’s Android looks increasingly likely to dominate the landscape in the years to come. It appears set to be to smartphones what Microsoft Windows is to PCs, and that’s not
necessarily a good thing.
Last week, my Android-powered smartphone, which had just been upgraded to Jelly Bean, the latest version of the software, popped up a message warning me that it would take nine minutes longer than normal to get to my next meeting, in Midrand. The reason, it said, was that there was a traffic snarl-up on the highway.
Pressing a button, I fired up Google Maps, selected the traffic overlay, and was able to see the location of the problem: traffic was backed up between William Nicol Drive and Rivonia Road. Figuring it would take me longer than the nine-minute highway delay to find an alternative route to Midrand, I simply left a little earlier to ensure I made my meeting on time. My phone even offered to give me turn-by-turn voice-guided navigation to my destination, but since I already knew where I was going, I declined. It had already saved me from the annoyance and stress of being late for an important meeting.
What had happened was Google had used a few of its many cloud-based services proactively to solve a challenge I didn’t even know I was going to face. It warmed me to the platform, making me more willing to share my location and other data with the search giant, even though I know it ultimately profits from that data.
Android is cementing its dominance in the smartphone market. According to recent figures from analyst firm International Data Corp (IDC), Android smartphone shipments accounted for three-quarters of the 181,1m smartphones shipped worldwide in the third quarter of 2012. As IDC senior research analyst Kevin Restivo notes, the smartphone operating system is no longer an isolated product but rather a “crucial part of a larger technology ecosystem. Google has a thriving,
16 multifaceted product portfolio [and] many of its competitors, with weaker tie-ins to the mobile operating system, do not.”
Still absorbing most of the smartphone industry’s profits, Apple has found a highly lucrative niche serving the high end of the market. But apart from Android and the iPhone, other mobile platforms are not faring well. Outside emerging markets like SA, Research in Motion’s BlackBerry platform, for example, is in dire straits. The company hopes its soon-to-be-launched BlackBerry 10 operating system will save its bacon, especially in developed markets. It’s a big bet.
Microsoft, meanwhile, continues to attempt to claw back lost ground. Its Windows Phone platform has generally been well received by critics, but it’s very late to the party. If Windows Phone had been introduced five years ago, around the time of the original iPhone, Microsoft would have had a much better shot at taking a meaningful chunk of the market. As it stands, it’s fighting for relevance, even with Nokia, the company that helped pioneer the smartphone, on its side.
Increasingly, then, it’s looking like a onehorse race. Apple, as in the PC business, occupies a highly profitable niche, with Android coming to dominate. And that’s not necessarily a good thing. The incredible innovation in this space has happened because of intense competition. When Windows became the dominant platform on PCs, the pace of innovation in desktop operating systems slowed. There’s every reason to believe that if Google comes to dominate smartphones with Android, the same thing will happen. It’s in consumers’ best interests for Windows Phone and BlackBerry 10 to emerge as strong platform alternatives. But it’s far from clear whether that’s going to happen.