In want of direction

the predictions game can be a perilous one to play. But so far, this publication has called it right most of the time on the big issues in recent years.

The downward pull of recession-hit countries on emerging economies; the fact that, despite initial insulation, our financial and banking system will not be entirely protected from the US and European mess; and that Arab uprisings will redefine our relations with that region — it all turned out pretty much as we foretold.

Though we knew that the turbulent financial world markets would imperil the global economy for a period, few expected that it would last three to four years, with little sign of abating.

Following the elections in many European countries in the past year, the people who once ran the world are now changing; and, as November’s US elections have shown, those in office are fighting a different sort of election to stay in power.

For most countries, the economic crisis has clarified things into a much more succinct set of priorities and the world is beginning to understand the notion that all politics is local.

But our 2008 prediction that the leadership battle between then president Thabo Mbeki and his deputy Jacob Zuma at the ANC’s congress in Polokwane would finally resolve the succession crisis in the ruling party wasn’t quite on the mark.

Zuma did indeed emerge triumphant then, as we expected, but the leadership issue was far from settled.

And so again, a bruised and fractious party will stumble into Mangaung in a fortnight, riven by yet another leadership battle, with Zuma again at its centre.

Whether the president and his deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe, are able to resolve this latest leadership standoff

PRAKASH NAIDOO may be less important than how it happens.

Any fallout, as we are certain there will be, will ultimately determine the political landscape in 2013 and reverberate for at least another decade.

How these events at Mangaung come to a head will also determine the shape of the ruling party leading up to the 2014 elections and will continue to have an impact on the state of governance and stability.

All of this will be echoed in varying degrees throughout the other strands of SA life — economic policy, the domestic agenda and even international relations — as the world’s power blocs continue to shift in times of economic and political uncertainty.

And as the ANC bickers, SA stumbles.

The country is facing a level of labour unrest not seen in the 18 years since the end of apartheid, and the curbing effect this has had on growth is already evident.

In October the IMF cut its 2013 forecast for SA’s growth to 3% from an earlier projection of 3,3%. Projections for 2012 stand at 2,6%.

And then two of the world’s top ratings agencies, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, cut SA’s credit ratings, mainly because of government’s inability to manage the political and economic crises engulfing the country.

All this at a time when Africa’s largest economy is facing added pressures as Europe’s debt crisis slashes demand for our exports, crimping government revenue.

Adding to this depressing outlook, and following the ratings downgrades, it now seems likely that SA could end up running bigger deficits than most other emerging economies.

As writers in these pages say, how SA chooses to deal with these looming worries will depend largely on the calibre of ANC leadership that will emerge from Mangaung.

Will this be an ANC energised and renewed to tackle the pressing needs of the state and restore some level of political equilibrium, or will it be a party still paralysed by internal strife and power struggles?

Many commentators in SA in 2013 are hoping that this will finally signal the end of a ghastly chapter and that from this period of selfish introspection, the ANC will now look outward to restoring economic confidence and addressing the dire state of housing, health care, education, criminal justice and poverty.

But it seems unlikely. History has shown that in power struggles such as these the base desire for retribution often trumps the more noble one of rising above the fray.

So South Africans will continue to turn to and depend on moral leadership from outside the ranks of our politicians for guidance, direction and reassurance. And all of this suggests that 2013 presents little to be optimistic about.

But there was a period, in the months leading up to and during the 2010 soccer World Cup, when SA basked in a level of national pride and international admiration not experienced since the first heady days of our new democracy in 1994.

And SA will have that opportunity again in 2013, as hosts of the Africa Cup of Nations soccer tournament from January.

Bafana Bafana are going to need all our support again, as much of the continent will be looking to our grace and hospitality.

Our resilience and strength as a nation have been best at times of patriotic fervour and this will again be a chance for us to shine, albeit briefly, on the world stage.

FINANCIAL MAIL

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