SCENARIO PLANNING Worst-case preparation

Complete grid collapse would paralyse SA and cost billions

Christo van der Rheede Businesses must have contingency plans in place is consumed. SA’s power system runs at 50 Hz alternating current, and all electricity fed to the grid needs to be synchronised to that standard. If demand rises faster than supply, it can damage equipment, so power stations respond automatically by shutting down activities. But as more generating equipment shuts off, it increases the load on the rest, creating a cascading effect, with one station going down after the other, leading to a countrywide blackout.

Eskom spokesman Andrew Etzinger says the chance of a complete system collapse in SA is “infinitesimally small” because Eskom has protective mechanisms in place.

These mechanisms, which are tested regularly, are both manual, where operators implement load shedding, and automatic, where switches operate within seconds to cut off power from multiple customers. Eskom has two centres of excellence, he says: its national control centre and Koeberg power station.

Andrew Kenny, an independent energy analyst, agrees that Eskom is highly regarded globally for its systems management. The chance of a total blackout in SA is “no more likely to happen than every pilot in the air above SA suddenly dying of a heart attack and crashing his or her plane”, Kenny says.

Business Unity SA energy spokesman Laurraine Lotter says a complete system collapse in SA is a very low possibility because there is a good understanding of the risk and the consequences of not managing it. She has not heard any businesspeople