FROM JUNK TO FIRST WORLD
So we have come full circle. We have arrived at the place where we started. This time, though, we’re right in the middle of a long, head-first descent. Back in October 1994, when it all began, SA was ranked Baa3 on the Moody’s ratings scale of creditworthiness. On the same day, Standard & Poor’s had us on BB. Both had a stable outlook.
We were far from perfect. In the name of politics, people had for years been slaughtering one another in Gauteng’s East Rand (now Ekurhuleni) and the countryside in Kwazulu Natal. But things were looking up. Though Fitch Ratings did not rate SA until February 1998, when it put us on a BB rating with a positive watch, we were on the ascendancy.
Nelson Mandela was breathing fresh air into the gloom that was Africa’s curse of former liberation fighters turning into autocrats. His successor as president in the party had been elected unopposed and had already been running the country, while the elder statesman ceremonially enjoyed tea and biscuits with former enemies.
Slowly, the new nation was gaining confidence and staking its claim — even punching above its weight — in the affairs of the world.
Things got even better. The World Bank says 33.8% of the population lived below the poverty line of Us$1.90/day in 1996. This had dropped to 16.9% of the population by 2008.
“Factors driving this included social safety nets, real income growth, as well as decelerating inflationary pressure on households, the expansion of credit, and growth in formal housing,” the bank said last month.
This — halving the poverty rate — was achieved in 12 years, almost matching Brazil’s record of reducing poverty from 31.8% of the population in 1993 to 15.3% in 2009 on a purchasing power parity basis.
Like Singapore, we were firmly on the march to First World status. Then, as in Brazil, things started going south for our then Rainbow Nation.
The World Bank says our poverty rate stood at 15.9% of the population last year. At that point, unemployment reached a 12-year high.
Things have since become even bleaker, with unemployment now at 27.7%.
Like Brazil, we allowed the cancer of corruption to take root. The country is being stolen right under our noses, carted off to Dubai and to India.
We could have made better choices. But not all is lost. SA has always pulled herself back from the edge. We still can. The ANC’S policy conference, starting next week, is one such opportunity. Now at junk status, the path to First World status is wide open.
Taking back the state
The lootocrats are on the back foot. One by one, they are falling. They have already lost the most influential of their foot soldiers.
The SABC has been liberated from the suffocating grip of Hlaudi Motsoeneng and former chairman Mbulaheni Maghuvhe. A two-pronged strategy to eject Dudu Myeni from SA Airways is in full flight. At Eskom, Brian Molefe and Ben Ngubane are history. And Lynne Brown, Zethembe Khoza, Chwayita Mabude and Matshela Koko should next be out the doors of Megawatt Park.
The Guptas have been camping out in India for the past six weeks, watching from afar to see if their minions at Luthuli House and the Union Buildings are still able to protect them from the law.
It is for the progressive forces within the ANC to wrest control of party and state from the lootocrats. Then the assets of the people may yet get a chance to thrive — and we may reembark on our national journey towards First World status.
The lootocrats are on the back foot. One by one, they are falling. They have already lost the most influential of their foot soldiers