THE EMPTY CHAIR
The choice of top candidates may be difficult for the DA in the next general election as it aims to win Gauteng as well as a national majority. Besides the party chief, four people stand apart from their colleagues
One of the puzzles facing the DA ahead of the 2019 elections is who to run as a candidate for the Gauteng premiership. The party stands a very real chance of bringing the ANC to below 50% in that province and, in a tightly fought race, who the relevant candidate is could make all the difference.
Unfortunately, there appears on face value to be no-one in the current DA provincial leadership who embodies the necessary charisma and experience. One option, therefore, is to go with party leader Mmusi Maimane himself. That is something the DA has done before, in 2014, for similar reasons. Maimane’s electoral pull, which is now as powerful as it has ever been, could be the tipping point the party needs.
One of the consequences, if the DA does win Gauteng with Maimane at the helm of that campaign, is that it will have to elect a new parliamentary leader in 2019. Thus it is worth looking at some of the possibilities on that front.
First, however, it is worth saying something about the prospect of Maimane running as premier, because there are certain downsides. One is that the DA has argued the ANC can also be brought below 50% nationally. If it believes that, you would think Maimane should not stand for any position other than the presidency. It would somewhat undermine the party’s message in that regard if he stood as Gauteng premier.
In turn, whether or not Maimane would make the crucial difference in a Gauteng campaign must be weighed against the value and continuity he would bring by staying on as parliamentary leader.
Helen Zille operated as both Western
Cape premier and national leader but the DA’S national operation suffered as a result, as the various tensions between her and Lindiwe Mazibuko created not just a “two camps” problem but confusion over policy and co-ordination.
As an aside, there would also be the challenge that simple geography would introduce. Zille was across the road from parliament. If Maimane were to win, he would be in a different part of the country.
Likewise, though often ignored in political analysis, Maimane would have to want to do the job. There is no point electing someone not fully invested in the responsibility it entails.
The position of parliamentary leader is immensely influential and having the positions of national and parliamentary leader aligned is ideal. So, you can be sure, the preference for the DA will be to find someone who can match Maimane’s profile and status to run before it turns to him.
Beggars, however, can’t be choosers, and despite much rhetoric to the contrary the DA at present lacks depth in high-profile leaders. Those it has, Patricia de Lille and Zille, are well entrenched and not available for the Gauteng premiership. The loss of Mazibuko leaves really only Maimane.
In the current DA national caucus there would seem to be four people who stand alone when it comes to the necessary skills and expertise necessary to run the caucus: Geordin Hill-lewis (Maimane’s current chief of staff), John Steenhuisen (chief whip), David Maynier (finance spokesman) and James Selfe (chairman of the federal executive). They are not all equal. But individually and collectively they stand apart from their colleagues.
Hill-lewis is perhaps the most naturally gifted politician and leader in the caucus. He is relatively young, ideologically coherent and insightful, mature beyond his years and with the kind of political instincts you find only once in a generation.
He has managed both political communications and campaigns.
He is, however, very close to Maimane, risking the perception that he would be a surrogate for the leader; something apparent in previous internal caucus elections. He was Zille’s chief of staff too, and that much proximity to the heart of power can be perceived
What it means: On the face of it, the DA lacks depth in high-profile national leaders