A HERCULEAN TASK

Botswana’s new president takes over at a tricky time: the country’s economic growth is expected to slow in the long term, on the back of falling diamond reserves

As political change spreads in subsaharan Africa in a series of peaceful transitions, Botswana quietly got a new president at the start of the month. An economic overhaul may now be on the cards.

Mokgweetsi Masisi was sworn in as the new president of Botswana, taking over from Ian Khama, who completed the maximum 10 years in office.

Since 1997, Botswana has strictly enforced term limits and no president is allowed to serve more than two terms.

The president is elected by the national assembly, which has been dominated by the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) since 1966.

Capital Economics economist John Ashbourne says: “Botswana’s latest legal and peaceful political transition will further strengthen its reputation as one of the bestgoverned countries in Africa.”

In Botswana, it’s not unusual to have a political transition during a president’s term. The electoral system provides ways for the BDP to groom new leaders at least a year before elections.

Khama took over from former president Festus Mogae a year before the 2009 election.

According to BMI Research, a subsidiary of Fitch Group, Botswana is likely to benefit from continued political stability in the runup to the 2019 general election, as an economic recovery tempers social tensions.

While Khama undoubtedly has charisma, he was criticised for a lack of internal democracy, failing to diversify the economy and an authoritarian bent which created growing discontent.

But a new president and a fresh cabinet have renewed hopes that the BDP, which has performed successively worse in each election since 1965, can curry favour again.

In 2014, opposition parties won more votes than the BDP for the first time, but lost because they were divided.

A robust economic recovery and increased fiscal spending will assuage popular discontent in the short term, and perhaps bolster confidence in a new government led by Masisi, says BMI.

Like Khama, Masisi comes from a political family. His father, Edison Masisi, was an MP and a cabinet member.

But Masisi’s career began a world away from politics. He dabbled in acting before becoming a high-school teacher in the 1980s, after graduating from the University of Botswana in 1984 in English and history.

Once Masisi entered politics, he unsuccessfully vied to represent the Moshupa constituency in the 2004 general election. He won the seat in the 2009 general election.

His rise in the party was swift. Soon after his election, he was appointed assistant minister for presidential affairs & public administration and then became minister in January 2011. In 2014, he was appointed education & skills development minister, and then vice-president shortly after.

Now, as he steps into the presidency, the retired teacher will be tasked with diversifying

What it means: Masisi will have to diversify the economy and tackle the unemployment rate

Botswana’s economy and tackling the burgeoning 18% unemployment rate.

Government would, as a matter of urgency, prioritise new strategies to stimulate growth, with emphasis on access to education and training for the youth, who make up 60% of the population, he said at his inauguration.

Though the economy is expected to accelerate this year following a weak performance in 2017, Masisi faces the challenge of reducing Botswana’s dependence on the traditionally dominant diamond sector, which will slowly decline as reserves are exhausted, says Ashbourne.

Last year was particularly weak for Botswana’s external sector as overseas sales of diamonds contracted at a double-digit rate. The country is the second-largest diamond producer in the world. But as mines and factories close across the country, unemployment is expected to accelerate and economic growth is expected to take a knock in the long term.

“Masisi will likely increase spending on major capital development projects in a bid to distance himself from his predecessor, which will also bolster the country’s business environment,” says BMI, adding that a move to raise capital spending will likely win back popular support.

As Botswana’s economy loses its sparkle, Masisi may just prove to be a diamond in the rough.

Botswana’s latest legal and peaceful political transition will further strengthen its reputation as one of the best-governed countries in Africa John Ashbourne