Let the good times roll

A quick glance at global geopolitics is enough to suggest there are some pretty substantial risks floating around. Trade wars, state-sponsored cyberwarfare, Brexit, Uncle Vladimir’s foreign policy, Potus tweeting, population explosion, mass migration, water crises, ageing populations … it’s enough to make anybody curl up beneath the duvet and hope it all goes away.

The textbook response from the investor would be to run for safe havens, stick some gold bars under the bed and, in extreme cases, buy up large estates in New Zealand in case of apocalypse. Instead, the S&P 500 is hitting record highs and recording the longest bull run in history, having bounced back more than 300% since the depths of the financial crisis in March 2009.

A great deal of this performance can be attributed to the mighty showings of Apple, Amazon and Alphabet, which take the podium positions. Apple is the first company in US history to hit a $1-trillion market cap, and the other two are not very far behind.

Alphabet was the only one of today’s big three to make it into the top 10 in 2009, when the medals went to Exxonmobil, Walmart and Microsoft.

It’s been a period characterised by innovation and disruption, with many a traditional business model coming under all-out assault. And with interest rates remaining miserly, there’s been a wall of money chucked at the equity markets.

Clearly the good times won’t last forever and a correction will come eventually — unless it really is different this time. For now, though, we can enjoy the party.

Young, edgy customers proved unwilling to be shifted to a brand they associate with outfits Grandma would wear to church