TIME TO GET A MOVE ON

While the global motor industry develops new automotive technologies, SA is sticking to what it knows. There’s no immediate rush, but it can’t stay in a time warp indefinitely

SA has nothing to fear in the short term from its widening automotive technology gap with the northern hemisphere, says BMW global development head Klaus Fröhlich. Longer term, it’s another matter.

While European, Asian and US motor companies are pushing ahead with futuristic plans for self-driving vehicles and alternative power sources, SA remains obstinately stuck in the present.

By one estimate, electric vehicles (EVS) will account for 55% of vehicle sales worldwide by 2040. Last year, more than 2-million were sold — half of them in China. In Norway, which wants to eliminate petrol and diesel vehicles by 2025, EVS accounted for 49% of new vehicles.

In SA, the share was less than 0.1%. The government says it wants to embrace the electric revolution but its actions suggest otherwise. In countries where EV sales thrive, they are driven by tax and trade-in incentives. In SA, EVS face import duties higher than those on cars driven by the traditional internal combustion engine. It’s cheaper to import a V8 muscle car than it is an EV. Volkswagen SA MD Thomas Schäfer

says: “Globally, people buy EVS because they are incentivised to do so. Here, we are incentivised not to buy.”

Even before penalties, EVS — whether pure electric or hybrids driven by a combination of electricity and liquid fuel — cost more because they are built in smaller numbers than combustion models, so unit costs are higher. Manufacturers say that is likely to change within six years, as EV volumes increase.

“They will all work off the same cost base by 2025,” says Fröhlich. BMW recently announced that it will soon offer electric, hybrid and combustion versions of all its model ranges. The first to benefit will be the X3 SUV, which is built in SA.

Jaguar Land Rover SA, which recently announced the introduction of a number of electric cars to the local market, expects “exponential” growth in EVS in the near future.

Other companies say they are holding back because of what they see as SA’S resistance to the technology. Lack of recharging infrastructure is a significant obstacle for nonhybrids.

Fröhlich says there is no need to panic. Their market share may shrink but combustion engines will be around for decades. “Just