SA NEEDS A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON JOBS
Data has yet to factor in the full horror of Covid-19
In its latest release of unemployment data, Stats SA explains how, under Covid-19 conditions, it had to use different methods of enumeration.
The statistical note accompanying the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for the first quarter says: “Data collection was disrupted when Stats SA suspended face-to-face data collection for all its surveys on March 19 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and restricted movement. This was to ensure that the field staff and respondents were not exposed to the risk of contracting coronavirus and to contain its spread.”
Stats SA tells us 306,000 more people joined the labour force in the first quarter, and a total of 960,000 joined the labour force between the first quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020. In other words, nearly 1-million more people were available for work. However, there were only 91,000 jobs available, so
869,000 would have had to join the unemployment queue.
The result is that the unemployment rate has now breached the 30% mark (it’s at 30.1%).
Since Stats SA’S first-quarter data collection was disrupted, there has been dramatic disruption in employment itself. to hire people, by making it easy to fire them. We will learn in the next employment numbers — when lockdown-induced retrenchments show up in the figures — just how easy it is to fire in this economy.
We have, of course, seen this before: in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, between 2008 and 2010, more than 1.1-million jobs were shed across the economy.
Second, it is important to note that the financial services sector lost 50,000 jobs in the period under consideration. This is concerning, because financial services is a sector that has displayed resilience over time, with some branding this the “financialisation” of the SA economy.
Third, this data shows us growth of 3,000 jobs in the informal sector in the first quarter. We also know that this sector was most severely affected by the Covid-19 lockdown, with government support not reaching it.
New imaginings
Shoppers are returning to the malls after the government eased of lockdown restrictions to level 3, which allowed most retailers to reopen from June 1.
Wilken says close to 90% of tenants in most of Hyprop’s malls are trading again.
Foot count at Hyprop’s portfolio as a whole is still down 24% for the first seven days of June (year on year), though it showed a marked improvement on April and May, when visitor numbers dropped by 71% and 39% respectively.
Wilken believes life under lockdown has amplified the need for social engagement, which malls provide the ideal platform for.
He says a visit to the mall is no longer about buying things but rather an opportunity for people to be entertained and connect with others in a safe environment.
“Our malls play an important role in their communities and we believe they will continue to do so post-lockdown.”
Wilken adds: “A number of our tenants are reviewing their business models in light of the
Forecast period 96.46 pandemic and we are working closely with them to design and recalibrate our collective offering.”
Other mall owners are also seeing a steady return of shoppers.
Fortress Reit owns 60 malls across SA. Many of these serve rural and lower-income communities. Vuso Majija, head of retail property at Fortress, says the foot count in its portfolio for the first week of June is roughly 20% below that recorded in the same period last year.
Early-june numbers are up markedly from May, which in itself recorded a 43% increase from
April, he says.
Majija says landlords have been hard at work to ensure their malls meet health and hygiene requirements.
“We expect that as consumers regain confidence in the safety of our malls this trend will continue and we will finish the year strongly,” he says.
Estienne de Klerk, SA CEO of Growthpoint Properties, the country’s largest landlord, confirms that malls in rural and nonmetropolitan areas have recorded particularly strong foot count and trade in the past few weeks.
He ascribes that to many South Africans, including recipients of social grants, still getting paid despite the shutdown of nonessential businesses from March 27.
“In fact, some people have more spending money now given savings made on transport costs during the April and May lockdowns,” 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80
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